NFC Championship Betting – Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:

Any fan knows that the result of a regular season game is meaningless when it comes time to play the NFC Championship. But the San Francisco 49ers’ total annihilation of the Green Bay Packers in Week 12 is hard to overlook. Sure, the Pack hasn’t lost since that 37-8 setback, beating the Niners’ nemesis Seattle last week in the Divisional Round to advance to the conference title tilt in its first postseason appearance in three years. The Niners caged Aaron Rodgers and allowed very little in that November cover victory. Can Rodgers work some of his postseason magic against the heavily favored hosts on Sunday?

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Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers

Date and Time: Sunday, January 19, 2020, 6:40 p.m. ET

Location: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA

Opening NFL Odds: San Francisco -7, O/U 44.5

Packers at 49ers TV Coverage: FOX

Odds Analysis

When the teams met at Levi’s Stadium on November 24 the game was a tossup. Despite going 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS since, the Packers opened as a 7-point dog with the number wagered up a half-point to its current +7.5. The Niners were 3-2 SU and ATS in five regular season games since that victory, but finished strong by beating the Rams and Seattle by a combined eight points to win the NFC West and the No. 1 seed in the conference. With a number of starters back in the rotation for last week’s tilt, the Niners dominated Minnesota, 27-10, covering as a 7-point favorite. The total surfaced at 44.5 with a majority of early money on the over pushing the number to 46.5.

Green Bay Packers

What the Packers did in that November matchup in the Bay Area didn’t work. Rodgers completed 20 of 33 for 104 yards and Green Bay totaled less than 200 yards. The team will make adjustments to limit San Fran’s pass rush and negative plays. But will the Packers be successful. It’s hard to imagine them not having more success. Rodgers is an elite-level quarterback, Davante Adams is a true No. 1 receiver and Aaron Jones has been a workhorse back over the last few months.

Playing on the road when spotted seven or more points hasn’t been an ideal situation for Green Bay recently. It hasn’t happened since October of 2018 with a loss to the Rams, which was their 10th straight defeat in such games. They did cover in that one and are 5-4-1 ATS in that span. In order to pull off the upset Jones will have to make the Niners defense respect the run game. He scampered for 62 yards and a pair of touchdowns last week and amassed 439 of his 1,084 yards on the ground in the final four regular season games.

And of course Rodgers will have to make plays against a defense that swarmed Kirk Cousins. Rodgers was efficient against the Seahawks throwing for 243 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 16 of 27 passing. More importantly, the Packers didn’t turn the ball over. During the regular season they had only 13 giveaways, the second-fewest in the NFL, and posted a plus-12 turnover margin.

San Francisco 49ers

Three home teams won and covered in last week’s divisional games with the Niners being the most dominant. And they whacked the Vikings behind the system that got them the No. 1 seed in the NFC. As much hype and money as Jim Garoppolo gets, it’s not difficult to hand the ball off on a majority of plays. Hell, they could let Nick Mullens do that and save a bunch of money in the process.

Behind the second-best run game and a defense that saw the return of three starters, the Niners cruised to a 27-10 victory over the Vikings, reaching the NFC Championship for the first time since a run of three straight from 2011-13. Averaging 144 yards per game on the ground during the regular season, the Niners outdid that figure by plenty in taking Minnesota. Tevin Coleman was the workhorse with 105 yards and a pair of scores while Raheem Mostert added 58 and the team amassed 186 yards on 47 attempts. They just wore the Vikings down in the second half.

Garoppolo threw only 19 passes completing 11 for 131 yards and a touchdown. He also tossed a pick, his 14th of the season. This was about the run game and defense, though. The Niners allowed just 21 rushing yards taking away the threat of play-action. And they sacked Cousins six times with Nick Bosa getting a pair. The formula was similar in the earlier win over Green Bay. They sacked Rodgers five times, rushed for 112 yards, and Garoppolo threw for 253 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

Bet Packers at 49ers at BookMaker.eu

The Niners are playing at a high level right now and it’s hard to imagine them losing. That being said, the wily veteran Rodgers will have something up his sleeve to keep this game closer than the current line suggests. However, the Niners benefitted from the first-round bye getting a number of players back in the mix and they are too deep across the board.

NFL Score Prediction: San Francisco 26, Green Bay 22

Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today.

- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com

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