NBA Betting – Boston Celtics at Miami Heat 2020

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:

The Miami Heat are a tough out at home, making the Boston Celtics’ chore of earning a victory over the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference a little more challenging. Miami’s 21-2 record at American Airlines Arena is tied for the best in the NBA and a big reason why the Heat are surprisingly tied with Toronto behind the Bucks in the East. Boston is close behind and can close the gap further with a win on Tuesday night, but they could be without a few key regulars as Jayson Tatum and Enes Kanter are doubtful to play.  Be sure to claim your welcome bonus - Maximum $1000

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Boston Celtics at Miami Heat

Date and Time: Tuesday, January 28, 2020, 8 p.m. ET

Location: American Airlines Arena, Miami, FL

Opening NBA Odds: Miami -4.5

Celtics at Heat TV Coverage: TNT

Odds Analysis

Dealing with an assortment of injuries the last few weeks has prevented the Celtics from gaining any traction. They won three straight immediately after losing three in a row. That winning streak ended Sunday in New Orleans. The Cs are just 5-7 SU and 6-6 ATS in their last 12 games while going 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS on the road during that span. Miami improved to 32-14 overall and 21-2 at home with a win over Orlando on Monday night. The Heat are also a good bet at home going 16-7-1 ATS following their cover against the Magic.

Boston Celtics

It’s hard to find any continuity when players are constantly shuffled through the lineup. That’s reflected in the Celtics recent results. Let’s see, leading scorer Kemba Walker missed a few games, as did second-leading scorer Tatum and third-leading point producer Jaylen Brown, with all of this happening within the last few weeks. Tatum, who averages 21.5 points per game, and Kanter are not expected to play on Tuesday night, further depleting the roster.

The duo missed Sunday’s game against the Pelicans and it wasn’t pretty. Kanter (8.2) and Tatum (6.9) lead the team in rebounding and without them cleaning up the glass the Celtics were outrebounded 54-37 with the Pels getting 18 offensive boards. Boston showed signs of playing the stingy brand of defense we’ve become accustomed to seeing. During their recent three-game winning streak they allowed an average of exactly 100 points holding two opponents to fewer than 100 points.

The game is about adjustments and making the proper ones given the current roster situation. That didn’t happen in New Orleans when the Celtics were killed on the glass. Expect Stevens and his club to figure it out by Tuesday. Offensively they have scorers in Walker and Brown, who each average over 20 points per game. Gordon Hayward is having more good moments than bad and is averaging 16.6 points. The problem is they just haven’t gotten a lot of help from the bench outside of Kanter, and a few players will need to make an impact.

Miami Heat

Other than Jimmy Butler the Heat have no superstars. They’ve been winning this season thanks to contributions from everyone on the roster. Butler is the glue leading the club with 20.3 points and 6.5 assists per game, but he’s received plenty of support. Seven players average in double figures and as a team Miami shoots 47.3 percent from the field and 38 percent from behind the arc, both ranked among the top-5 in the Association. They also produce over 112 points per game.

Miami’s home/road splits have been alarming. They are 21-2 at home with a scoring margin of plus-10.5 points. On the road they are 11-12 with a margin of minus-2.7. In the only meeting of the season the Celtics got 59 combined points from Walker and Brown in a 112-93 beating of the Heat on Dec. 4. Butler scored 37 points in the loss but the top-ranked three-point shooting defense allowed Boston to connect on 39 percent of its triples.

Much like Zion Williamson took advantage of Boston’s weakness in the post, Miami’s Bam Adebayo has a chance to do the same. He was a non-factor when the teams first met, but Bam’s game has picked up. He collected his third triple-double of the season in Monday’s win over Orlando with 20 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists. For the season he averages 16.0 points and 10.4 rebounds per game with the Heat going 9-2 in games he scores at least 20.

Bet Celtics at Heat at BookMaker.eu

Miami is 3-1 SU in the second game of its last four back-to-back. And if it’s in Miami and the game is close chances are it’s going the way of the Heat. Something about this team that just perseveres on its home floor. And with the Celtics dealing with injuries and inconsistent play over the last several weeks, I like Miami’s chances of emerging with a cover victory.

NBA Score Prediction: Miami 109, Boston 105

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- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com

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