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MLB Line, Total Shifts, Consensus Plays and Betting Analysis June 19

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:
Jun/19/2019

Gambling911.com has your MLB line, total shifts and consensus plays betting analysis for Wednesday June 19.  A must read prior to placing your MLB wagers. Scroll down for all of today's game previews


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We suffered our first two-day consecutive losses on the season the other day with our Major League Baseball picks to take us to 17-11-2.

Biggest consensus

DiamondBacks - 78%

Pirates - 77%

Astros - 77%

Cardinals - 75%

Dodgers - 74%

Athletics - 73%

Totals

Brewers-Padres UNDER - 65%

Mets-Braves OVER - 70%

Significant Line/Total Shifts

Pirates - The line on this game has shot up from -119 to -166 Pittsburgh. 

Angels - We have seen a move from -141 to -164 LA.

Cubs - The Cubs went from -130 to -145.

Red Sox vs. Twins - The total has trended from 10 to 9.

Previews

Brewers vs. Padres - Over the weekend, we did mention to keep a close watch on Zach Davies likely pitching well for the Brewers Wednesday afternoon (3:40 pm ET) coming off a loss the other night.  We were pleasantly surprised to see that Milwaukee was coming in priced significantly lower than we would have expected at between -109 and -115.

Yesterday we were anticipating a potential UNDER but feared pulling the trigger due to Padres Logan Allen having limited MLB exposure this season as he was promoted from Triple-A El Paso to start in place of fellow rookie Nick Margevicius.  The total has dropped from 8.5 to 7.5 and sure enough ended with five runs scored.

The day has finally come and here we are with Zach Davies taking to the mound.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Brewers RH Zach Davies (7-1, 2.60 ERA) vs. Padres LH Matt Strahm (2-6, 4.66)

Davies suffered his first loss of the season after giving up three runs over five innings against San Francisco last Friday. The 26-year-old dealt with shoulder injuries last season and finished with a 2-7 record in 13 starts but opened this season with a 1.38 ERA over his first six outings. Wil Myers is 1-for-8 with three strikeouts against Davies, who is 3-0 with a 2.16 ERA in four career starts versus San Diego.

Strahm returned from the injured list and received a rude greeting at Coors Field last Thursday, allowing six runs on seven hits over 3 1/3 innings in a 9-6 loss to Colorado. The 27-year-old native of North Dakota has given up a total of 18 hits over his last three starts across 13 2/3 innings. Strahm, who is making his first career start versus Milwaukee, missed 10 days at the start of the month with a left rib strain.

In the end, yes, Milwaukee looks appealing, especially at this price. The problem: They are on a downward trajectory.  They have lost five of their last seven.

The UNDER may have been a safe bet if not for the fact that San Diego has scored five or more runs in seven of their last ten.

It's a tough pill to swallow making an UNDER pick on two teams that are pretty much playing .500 MLB right now.

Rockies vs. Diamondbacks - Colorado continues to dominate over Arizona, winning 8-1 last night and padding their record to 16-5 over the last 21 meetings. 

Both teams enter this game a few wins above the .500 mark.  The Diamondbacks are a -145 favorite with that line moving up from around -134.  The Rockies were coming in at +124.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Rockies RH Jon Gray (6-5, 4.38 ERA) vs. Diamondbacks RH Zack Greinke (8-2, 2.65)

Gray made a rare relief appearance in the ninth inning of Sunday's wild 14-13 loss to San Diego, intentionally walking two batters before walking Matt Strahm with the bases loaded. The 27-year-old native Oklahoman earned the win last Thursday against the Padres after allowing four runs with 10 strikeouts over six innings. David Peralta is 8-for-18 against Gray, who is 2-3 with a 5.15 ERA in eight career starts versus Arizona.

Greinke took a no-hitter into the seventh inning and tossed 7 1/3 shutout innings in a 5-0 victory over Washington last Thursday. "I felt really good," Greinke told reporters. "Everything was working, and things felt crisp. Most pitches I threw were coming out how I wanted them to. I felt good the whole time." Trevor Story is 11-for-38 with five homers against the five-time All-Star, who owns a 12-6 record and 3.71 ERA in 32 career games (31 starts) versus Colorado.

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com

Our Free Picks Record June 18

2019 MLB Record: 17-11-2 (60.8%) - No Plays Over -160

2018-19 College Basketball Record: 12-9 (57.1%)

2018-19 NBA Record: 7-5 (58%)

2018 MLB Record: 45-35 (56.2%)

2018 NBA Record: 12-4-1 (75%)

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