MLB Line, Total Shifts, Consensus Plays and Betting Analysis June 13

Gambling911.com has your MLB line, total shifts and consensus plays betting analysis for Thursday June 13.  A must read prior to placing your MLB wagers. Scroll down for all of today's game previews

Twins - 78% of consensus plays.  Minnesota is just over the -160 threshold at -162 for us to make a play on the Twins here, though we'd probably pass as the line opened at -180 and there is an obvious enticement to get bettors backing Minnesota against a troubled Mariners team.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Mariners LH Yusei Kikuchi (3-4, 4.99 ERA) vs. Twins RH Michael Pineda (4-3, 5.34)

Kikuchi has lost three straight starts and lasted just 3 1/3 innings in each of the outings. The native of Japan, who turns 28 on Monday, has served up six homers and been roughed up for 18 runs (16 earned) and 29 hits during the 10-inning stretch. Kikuchi's last victory was against the Twins on May 19 when he allowed three runs (one earned) and five hits over six innings.

Pineda is 2-0 over his last five starts and allowed three runs in each of the turns. The 30-year-old has walked just two batters in 30 innings during the stretch and didn't give up a homer in his last two outings after serving up 10 over his previous five starts. Pineda defeated the Mariners on May 16 when he gave up three runs and five hits over seven innings to improve to 2-1 with a 5.18 ERA in four career outings against Seattle, his first major-league team.

Seattle is starting to show signs of a comeback, having won half of their last eight.   

Five of the last six meetings have gone into double digits.  We have a total here of 10.5 with some wobbling between that number and 10. 

The Mariners are 1-7 in their last 8 road games vs. a right-handed starter and are 1-10 in their last 11 games following a win.

Kikuchi will likely pitch well today, although that's hard to believe after being knocked around his last three starts.  That Seattle line falling scares the bejesus out of us, especially with Pineda pitching well.

Diamondbacks - 78% consensus plays. The line on this game has hovered between -113 and -124 Diamondbacks and was at -119 at 2 pm ET.  The total opened at 8.5, moved to 9 and was back down to 8.5.

Arizona comes into this game a few wins above the .500 mark while Washington is a few games below that mark.  The Nats, however, are 12-5 over their last 17, which means they are playing right up there with the best of them over these past couple of weeks. 

There is one thing that remains constant though.  Washington has the worst bullpen in Major League Baseball.

They have only permitted five or more runs in six of their last 15 games.

Washington has won the last five meetings and seven of the last nine versus the Diamondbacks.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Diamondbacks RH Zack Greinke (7-2, 2.87 ERA) vs. Nationals RH Erick Fedde (1-0, 2.93)

Greinke, who exited his previous start with a sore neck, appeared to benefit from an extra day of rest to scatter four hits over six innings in a 6-0 win over Toronto on Saturday. The victory was the first in a four-start stretch for the 2009 American League Cy Young Award recipient, who owns a 4-2 mark on the road while limiting the opposition to batting .208 in eight starts. Rendon (1-for-9) and Matt Adams (2-for-15, six strikeouts) have struggled against Greinke, who sports a 5-1 record with a 1.46 ERA and 0.91 WHIP versus Washington.

Fedde has acquitted himself well in his four starts since joining the rotation, posting a 1-0 mark with a 2.70 ERA. The 26-year-old received his second straight no-decision on Friday despite surrendering three runs on five hits in six innings at San Diego. Fedde has seen his pitch count elevate in each of his last six trips to the mound, although he did not walk a batter against the Padres after issuing three free passes in each of his previous two outings.

Five of the last six have stayed UNDER the current total, but unless Fedde can go deep, we have our concerns over this Washington bullpen.

The Nationals are 1-8 in Fedde’s last 9 home starts.

Rays - 80% consensus plays.  The line on Tampa Bay has moved from -126 to -142.

The Rays are 8-2 versus the Angels in their last ten.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Angels LH Tyler Skaggs (4-6, 4.97 ERA) vs. Rays LH Ryan Yarbrough (5-2, 5.31)

Skaggs is winless in his last four starts, including defeats in the past two while allowing 10 runs (nine earned) on 11 hits across 11 total innings. The 27-year-old California native is 1-4 with a 6.47 ERA in his last six starts after going 3-2 with a 3.12 mark in his first five trips the mound this season. Guillermo Heredia is 4-for-8 with two doubles and a homer versus Skaggs, who was 0-2 with a 10.61 ERA against Tampa Bay in 2018.

Yarbrough has been outstanding in two of his three starts this year, including Saturday when he held Boston to two runs (one earned) over a career-high 7 2/3 innings for the win. The 27-year-old is 3-1 in four outings since being recalled on May 23 and completed at least seven frames in all three of the starts. Mike Trout is 3-for-5 with a homer against Yarbrough, who went 2-0 with a 5.56 ERA in two games versus the Angels last year.

In the third outing prior to this one, Skaggs shutout the Rangers in five plus innings.  He's certainly capable of coming into this one and performing well.

The Rays should be priced much higher here, so it's a scary one.

Rockies - 76% of consensus plays.  The line has shot up as much as 15 points from Colorado -128 to -140.

The Rockies have won six of the last seven meetings and are a few wins above the .500 mark now.  They have played well at home, going 20-13. They are 20-8 in their last 28 home games.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Padres LH Matt Strahm (2-5, 4.03 ERA) vs. Rockies RH Jon Gray (5-5, 4.27)

Strahm returns from a short stay on the injured list with a rib injury as he looks to bounce back from consecutive losing starts. The 27-year-old was torched for a season-worst seven runs as well as seven hits (two homers) in a loss to the Miami Marlins on June 2. Strahm has pitched four shutout innings in three career relief appearances against the Rockies and will be making his first start at Coors Field.

Gray lost to the New York Mets in his last outing when he gave up four runs and eight hits over 5 2/3 innings. The 27-year-old has fared well at Coors Field this season by going 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 30 innings over five starts. Gray is 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA in two outings against the Padres this season and a solid 9-3 with a 2.70 ERA in 17 career starts against San Diego.

It should e noted that Colorado has a top ten bullpen.  They have won half of their last ten while San Diego has only won three of their last ten.

The Rockies are 10-4 in Gray’s last 14 home starts.

Though the value is nice here, the price should probably be higher in favor of the Rockies vs. Strahm.  It's just enough to keep us away but Colorado does look attractive here.

Yankees vs. White Sox - Eight of the last ten meetings have gone UNDER the current total of 9.5 and that number has come down off of 10.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Yankees LH J.A. Happ (6-3, 4.48 ERA) vs. White Sox RH Ivan Nova (3-5, 6.28)

Happ is 5-0 in his last six starts and yielded one run - a solo homer - in seven innings to earn a win at Toronto on Thursday. The 36-year-old surrendered at least one homer in each of his last five outings but limited the damage to three or fewer earned runs in four of those turns. Happ was not at his best at home against Chicago on April 12, when he was lit up for six runs on nine hits - one homer - and a pair of walks over four innings to suffer the loss.

Nova is winless in his last three starts and was knocked around for four runs and six hits over 5 1/3 innings in a no-decision at Kansas City on Friday. The Dominican Republic native runs into trouble with his control at times but issued only three walks across 24 1/3 innings over his last four outings. Nova, who began his career with the Yankees, started at New York on April 13 and yielded one run on four hits but was saddled with the loss in a 4-0 final.

The Yankees have scored five or more runs in six of the last ten overall.  They've allowed more than that in seven of those.

The White Sox have allowed five or more runs in six of their last ten.

Backing an UNDER here is probably not wise.

Cubs vs. Dodgers - Five of the last six meetings have gone OVER the current total of 8.  But Kershaw coming off his first loss of the season and Lester having won his last two after suffering on a three-game losing streak catches our attention.   The problem here is the price, -172.  If you are willing to lay money on that high a price, this one might be worth it. Gambling911.com doesn't make picks above the -160 threshold. 

PITCHING MATCHUP: Cubs LH Jon Lester (5-4, 3.56 ERA) vs. Dodgers LH Clayton Kershaw (5-1, 3.00)

Lester has won his first two starts of June after ending May with a three-game losing streak in which he allowed 19 runs over 14 innings. The 35-year-old, who boasts 182 career victories, allowed five runs on nine hits across 13 innings with 12 strikeouts and three walks in those last two victorious outings. Cody Bellinger is 4-for-7 with a homer versus Lester, who is 4-4 with a 3.22 ERA in 10 career games against the Dodgers.

Kershaw suffered his first loss of the season Friday despite permitting two runs on six hits over seven innings against rival San Francisco. The 31-year-old Texan has posted quality starts in nine of his 10 outings this season, including June 1 when he limited Philadelphia to one unearned run over seven frames. Anthony Rizzo is 6-for-16 with two homers against Kershaw, who is 5-3 with a 2.57 ERA in 10 career starts versus the Cubs.

- Tony Caliente, Gambling911.com

Our Free Picks Record June 13

2019 MLB Record: 16-9-2 (64%) - No Plays Over -160

2018-19 College Basketball Record: 12-9 (57.1%)

2018-19 NBA Record: 7-5 (58%)

2018 MLB Record: 45-35 (56.2%)

2018 NBA Record: 12-4-1 (75%)