MLB Betting Picks June 18 – Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:

The return of Bryce Harper for a second time to the place where his career began was put on hold after Monday’s rain out. Harper and his Philadelphia Phillies are trying to keep pace with the red-hot Braves in the NL East while the Washington Nationals attempt to keep their heads above water.

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Both teams are coming off blowouts in their last game. The Nats took out some frustrations with a 15-1 walloping of Arizona while the Phils dropped the series with a 15-5 setback in Atlanta. Philly’s Jake Arrieta and Nats lefty Patrick Corbin get the starting assignments. Both were scheduled to throw on Monday.

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals

Date and Time: Tuesday, June 18, 2019, 7:05 p.m. ET

Location: Nationals Park, Washington, DC

Probable Pitchers: Jake Arrieta vs. Patrick Corbin

Opening MLB Odds: Nationals -153 (Live Lines Here)

Phillies at Nationals TV Coverage: MLB Network

Odds Analysis

Philadelphia’s attempt to hang near the top of the division has been impeded by a recent stretch of five losses in seven games. The Phillies fell further behind the Braves by dropping two of three over the weekend giving up a total of 29 runs. The staff has allowed at least four runs in six of the last seven games and twice surrendered double figures, including the 15 on Sunday. The Phils are on a heater playing above the closing total, cashing the over in three straight and five of the last six games.

The Nats haven’t given up on the season just yet, but they better start winning games because the status quo isn’t going to get it done. Going 5-5 in their last 10 and entering the series at 33-38, the Nats find themselves closer to last place Miami than to first place Atlanta. Washington has scored at least 10 runs in a game eight times this season with three of those coming at the expense of Philly pitching. The over is 5-3 in the eight games played between the teams.

Probable Pitchers

Former Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta ( 6-5, 4.31 ERA ) allowed three runs in 6.0 innings in his last start, working himself out of a few jams to get the victory over Arizona. Arrieta had a strong start to the season posting a 2.65 ERA over his first five starts. But his past nine outings have been a struggle with a 5.40 ERA in that span. The Phils are 4-1 in his last five starts however, scoring a total of 32 runs in those games.

Arrieta hasn’t faced the Nats this season and it’s probably a good thing. In 14 career starts against them he’s 1-2 with a 5.07 ERA. He averaged just over five innings per outing in those games and he hasn’t beaten Washington since the 2015 campaign.

The signing of Patrick Corbin ( 5-5, 4.11 ERA ) looked like a steal for the Nats early in the season. He was 2-0 with a 2.65 ERA through five starts. But just like his counterpart, the struggles followed. Corbin has been hit hard over his last three outings giving up 22 hits over 12.2 innings with an 11.37 ERA. He took the loss each time matching the longest streak of his career.

Those three starts all took place on the road and a return home could be the inspiration Corbin needs to get back on track. His last home start was a four-hit shutout of Miami, and Corbin is 3-1 with a 2.32 ERA in six home starts. He yielded six hits and three runs across 6.0 innings at the Phillies in May and he is 3-1 with a 3.58 ERA over six lifetime starts against them.

Player to Watch

Harper burst onto the scene with the Nationals in 2012 and played with them through last season. The lure of massive free agent dollars and Philadelphia’s willingness to pay them landed Harper in Philly on a 13-year contract. His first trip back to DC in early April was memorable. Harper went 5 for 7 with a double, home run and three RBIs as the Phillies produced 16 runs in the two-game set. He’s batting just .247 overall, but he’s hit in eight of the 10 games and has a .321 average against his former team. He’s also 5 for 13 career against Corbin.

Bet Phillies at Nationals at BookMaker.eu

Harper’s return will make this game interesting. He was soundly booed the first time back and you know Nats fans will let him have it again. That just seems to get Bryce all fired up and he went off. The numbers say that’s not going to happen and I have to believe that’s the case. And I like Corbin to find a groove after a few rocky outings. The Nats pen has also been better since a new pitching coach took over and I like the home team to get to Arrieta, who’s had a decrease in velocity on his pitches.

MLB Score Prediction: Nationals 7, Nationals 4

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This article courtesy of Bookmaker and Phil Simon

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