The DSCC is buying up all available time left in Arizona, as Pederson's late-surge puts him within striking distance of a huge upset victory. But the DSCC didn't make the decision based on the polls, but on early voting patterns.

According to our October 29 to 31 survey of 745 likely Arizona voters, fully 30% of the Arizona electorate has already voted. We expect that perhaps up to two-fifths of the voters in this election will vote early or by absentee ballot. In our October 8 to 31 tracking polls (since early voting started) we have interviewed a total of 594 early voters. Among these early voters, Jim Pederson is leading Jon Kyl by 4 points: 44% for Pederson compared to 40% for Kyl, with 4% for other candidates and 12% refused. This 4% Pederson lead is all the more remarkable since registered Republicans and Democrats are equally likely to have voted early, and in fact there are more Republicans than Democrats in this early-voting sample of 594 respondents.

The NRSC is dumping nearly $1 million into Michigan to try and draw DSCC attention. But Stabenow is running strong and at this point, it's wasted money. Arizona, on the other hand, appears legit.

On Thursday, another 7500 Arizona online gamers were alerted to Jon Kyl's co-sponsored bill banning internet poker and other forms of web gambling while exempting bets on horses. 

"We believe there were self-serving agendas here and is platform related to family values is bogus," said one industry insider who wished not to be identified.

Quite a few online gambling companies however have expressed appreciation for Jon Kyl's efforts.  In less than a week's time, Kyl and his cronies caused millions of dollars to be lost by publicly traded i-gaming firms, most of which exited the North American market.

"We like Jon Kyl.  He should lobby for our industry," said the owner of one large private online gambling company.

A group calling itself the Poker Players Against Jon Kyl have already raised more money for Jim Pederson's campaign than any other independent third-party group without even focusing on promotion of Peterson.  Their message simply encourages people not to vote for Jon Kyl.

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Christopher Costigan, www.gambling911.com

Originally published November 2, 2006 3:55 pm ET