Iowa Straw Poll Likely to Impact Paul, Romney Presidential Odds
The folks at Sportsbook.com will be watching closely this weekend to see what transpires at the Iowa Straw Polls, specifically in regards to Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, who enjoy the shortest odds of any candidate in attendance.
Taking place in Ames, Iowa on Saturday, the poll gives an early indication of Iowa Republican sentiment before the state caucuses traditionally held in January, mainly by determining who leaves the stage.
Mitt Romney won't have any competition as neither former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani nor Senator John McCain of Arizona will be in attendance.
``It's a waste of money,'' Giuliani, 63, said when asked at a campaign event in Bettendorf, Iowa, why he wasn't taking part.
Another potential competitor, Fred Thompson, a former senator from Tennessee, hasn't officially declared his candidacy and won't have a presence in Ames.
Giuliani, McCain, 70, and Fred Thompson, 64, all trail Romney in most polls of Iowa Republicans.
Romney, who at press time sat with odds of 8 to 1 at Sportsbook.com, could be in for a rude awakening if he fails to be a runaway hit in Iowa.
Meanwhile, Ron Paul supporters have arranged special bus transports to and from Ames to ensure a large turnout. If last week's Pittsburgh rally is any indication, Paul should indeed have a rather large turnout. Estimates had between 1500 to just over 2000 showing up to that event.
Paul's popularity on the Web has forced oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com to slash Paul's odds in half from 15 to 1 to 8 to 1. He now has the same odds as Romney.
The question this weekend is whether the decentralized passion and organizational ability that his supporters have demonstrated online will translate into political action that will build the candidate's political capital in the offline world, writes Hans Nichols of ABC News Online.
Of all the little fish swimming beneath the currents of the major candidates in this presidential campaign season, none are making waves as surprising as those kicked up by Rep. Ron Paul, writes Clarence Page of the Baltimore Sun.
"The Texas Republican, who embraces a libertarian point of view, has been riding an unimpressive 2 percent in the polls, but if there were an election for the president of cyberspace, he'd probably win.
"Dr. Paul's supporters are an enthusiastic bunch. They flood online polls such as the unscientific survey to which ABC News invited viewers after the Republican debate broadcast Sunday. Yet, you could barely find the Texas doctor in the network's after-debate coverage, despite the vigorous applause he ignited with his call for an immediate withdrawal from Iraq.
Ron Paul is represented by the light blue in this Google Trends report. Purple, it should be pointed out, is Fred Thompson. Mitt Romney appears in the read coloring. With the exception of Washington, DC and St. Louis, Paul came out ahead in all other surveyed regions over close second Fred Thompson (with odds of 4 to 1 at press time)
"Dr. Paul's people smell a rat. In endless e-mailings and phone calls to talk shows, they blame an insidious conspiracy to muzzle the 'truth.'"
Even cries of ABC tinkering with polling numbers have been mentioned with some Paul supports claiming his votes went from just over 2000 to just 1700. Polls don't work backwards obviously so something in the water didn't compute.
"I hope it was just a glitch on their (ABC) part," said one supporter.
Even the Conservative Journal of Record, The Patriot Post, offered some support this week for candidate Paul.
"If there is one man who elicits a strong response across the gamut of GOP constituencies, it is Texas Republican congressman and presidential candidate Dr. Ron Paul. Because he is a genuine libertarian, Paul has been a gadfly to liberals and conservatives alike since his first election in Texas to the U.S. House in 1976, and his long-time presence in the GOP is an anomaly that deserves attention.
"Ron Paul, a ten-term congressman, small-town doctor, retired Air Force officer and great-grandfather is, indisputably, a gentleman. In a legislative body where integrity seems an increasingly rare quality, Paul’s is unquestioned."
The Patriot Post stopped short of an endorsement, insisting Ron Paul could not be voted into office by the Conservative base.
"Paul will not be Commander in Chief. The only way to preserve American liberty is to defend it vigorously from hostile regimes, and the constitutional obligation of the federal government to do so is beyond dispute. To be sure, we want to defend American sovereignty without an expansion of the state, but Paul’s view of Iraq as a “war of choice” conjured up by war profiteers and “a dozen or two neocons who got control of our foreign policy,” is more than most conservatives can bear. We loved ye, Ron Paul, but we never knew ye."
Paul has already publicly stated he would not drop out based on the Iowa straw poll results.
"We just want to have a respectable turnout," says Jesse Benton, Paul's communications director. "We're certainly working hard and activating our grass-roots network ... (but) in the end, it's not this cataclysmic event for us."
Carrie Stroup goes from a leading sports betting analyst to covering the 2008 Presidential race for the Gambling911.com website
Indeed, former Wisconsin governor and Secretary of Health and Human Services Tommy Thompson has said he will drop out if he doesn't perform well. The poll is far from scientific -- candidates try to stuff the ballot box by purchasing tickets for their supporters to attend the event, at $35 a pop, and by providing them with food, transportation and entertainment.
"I've said all along that if I don't come in first or second, I'll drop out of the race,'' said Thompson.
For the candidates competing behind Romney, their intention is to ride a respectable showing in the straw poll, where roughly a third of caucus-goers participate, to the actual event near the start of the year, according to Bloomberg News. The reality is that Ames forces campaigns to re-evaluate their rationale for existing.
``It's like power-lifting,'' Brownback, 50, said. ``You get your strength from your legs in the straw poll and then you power on through to the caucus.'' Declining to predict how he would do, he said he will make an ``assessment'' after the ballots are counted tomorrow night.
Analysts and campaign advisers say there won't be nine Republicans in the race when the field leaves Ames.
``The only thing for certain is that there will be fewer candidates next week than there are this week,'' John Saltsman, Huckabee's campaign manager, said.
Iowa Straw Poll Likely to Impact Paul, Romney Presidential Odds
Carrie Stroup,