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Prediction markets for elections have proven quite accurate in recent years and the Iowa Caucuses 2008 betting odds may not be an exception. Bookmaker.com was offering odds on the Iowa Caucus heading into the big day January 3, 2008 (see odds here) It should be noted that Bookmaker.com, the oldest established offshore bookmaker catering to the North American market since 1986, had odds that somewhat mirrored the polls, with the notable exception of Republican Ron Paul, who came in with the 3rd best odds of winning in Iowa. Barack Obama was more than 2 points ahead of Hillary Clinton in the oddsmaking category. His -180 number represented odds of 1/1.8 or one would have to wager $1.80 to win $1.00. Clinton would pay $1.40 for every $1.00 bet. Clinton and Edwards were in a dead heat with Edwards listed at +160. Likewise, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney were in a virtual deadlock as the two favorites to win the 2008 Iowa Caucus on the Republican side. Huckabee had odds of -165 while Romney had odds of -130. Ron Paul came in third, two points ahead of Senator John McCain, with the potential payout of $5.00 for every $1.00 bet if he were to win in Iowa. Paul raised more money the last quarter than Hillary Clinton.
Political prediction
markets provide us
-- the consumers of
this information --
with a way to cut
through this
clutter. They are especially accurate as we get closer to a particular election. For example, with the 2004 Presidential Election, well over a million dollars was bet on Election Day alone, which essentially helped to stabilize lines that mirrored voter sentiment. Bookmaker.com is a most interesting firm when it comes to prediction indicators. They have a reputation for being the sharpest bookmakers offshore today with the most "wise guy" or professional sports betting action going through their organization on a daily basis.
*Please
note that this type
of betting is likely
to attract a large
number of citizens
from Washington
State. That
state has made
online gambling a
CLASS C FELONY
It is the only state
in the US that holds
the gambler
criminally liable
with a sentence
equivalent to that
of a sex offender.
As such
Gambling911.com
advises Washington
State residents NOT
TO GAMBLE ONLINE.
IOWA CAUCUS 2008 -DEMOCRATIC
WINNER -
See Bookmaker.com
Here IOWA CAUCUS 2008 -REPUBLICAN
WINNER -
See Bookmaker.com
Here
ALL THE LATEST IOWA CAUCUSES NEWS HERE --- Christopher Costigan, Gambling911.com Publisher CCostigan@CostiganMedia.com
Originally published
January 2, 2008
10:40 pm EST
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Iowa
Caucuses 2008
Betting Odds