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Left for dead just last week, Democratic US Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton has rebounded tremendously. The polls may not always be accurate, but the prediction markets are. They have Hillary Clinton at -1600 odds to win Michigan (you would have to bet $1600 to get a $1 plus your initial $1600 back if she wins). Barack Obama, meanwhile, is listed with +750 odds (a value bet for sure paying out $750 for every $100 wagered).
On the Democratic
ballot, only N.Y.
Sen. Clinton's name
appears among three
major contenders.
Sen. Barack Obama,
Ill., and John
Edwards, the former
North Carolina
senator, took their
names off because
Michigan violated
national party rules
by moving its
primary before Feb.
5. Meanwhile, on the Republican side, Mitt Romney (who has lived in Michigan and whose dad was a popular Governor there) leads Senator John McCain only slightly in the polls. Not so with the oddsmakers. Gamblers action has prompted online oddsmakers to list McCain as a very slight favorite at -140 verses Romney's even odds. Mike Huckabee would pay $400 for every $100 bet; Rudy Giuliani would pay out $2000 for every $1o0 bet; Ron Paul would pay out $2500 for every $100 bet and Fred Thompson comes in the huge long shot, paying $5000 for every $100 bet. Some polls do show McCain leading. McCain, an Arizona senator, was supported by 34 percent of those surveyed by American Research Group Inc., while Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, was backed by 27 percent. In that poll, Ron Paul is leading both Giuliani and Thompson with 9%. The poll was taken Jan. 9-11. It surveyed 600 likely Republican primary voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Fox News has been touting Fred Thompson as the winner of its South Carolina Republican debate even though Ron Paul won its text vote poll by a landslide. How any of this translates in Michigan remains to be seen. The Detroit Free Press has given its endorsement to Senator John McCain, who won last week in New Hampshire and is considered the new frontrunner, at least among the prediction markets.
Romney's lead could
evaporate, depending
on how shaky,
undecided and
uncommitted voters
move over the next
two days. Some 38%
who had a favorite
said they might
change their mind by
Tuesday. Another 22%
hadn't picked a
candidate. All Michigan Primaries Betting Odds Courtesy of BetUS.com ---- Christopher Costigan, Gambling911.com Publisher CCostigan@CostiganMedia.com Originally published January 13, 2008 10:57 am EST
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Hillary
Clinton a Huge
Favorite to Win
Michigan Primary
Verses Obama