Oddsmakers Overwhelmingly Believe Hillary Clinton Will Beat Barack Obama by Wide Margin

Though they have since removed odds on the Iowa Primary, BetUS.com had Hillary Clinton listed as the -150 favorite to win New Hampshire and Barack Obama listed with even odds (John Edwards was at +1200 or a $100 bet would pay out $1200 in New Hampshire). 

That's only half the story, however.  Based on the amount of betting action that's influenced the line thus far, BetUS.com (see website here)  has Hillary Clinton with nearly a 4 1/2 point lead ahead of Barack Obama (Obama currently pays $4 for every $1 bet to become the next US President). 

The news coming into Thursday's Iowa primary is that Barack Obama was now enjoying a pretty decent size lead over the New York State Senator and former First Lady. 

With two days before Iowans go to the polls, significant support for Sen. Barack Obama from political independents has put rival Democratic campaigns on edge, challenging the traditional model of the state's caucuses as a low-turnout exercise dominated by partisan insiders.

The senator from Illinois received a jolt of momentum late New Year's Eve, when the Des Moines Register's final Iowa poll showed him leading Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) by 32 percent to 25 percent, with former senator John Edwards (N.C.) at 24 percent. But just as striking were two findings that suggest Obama may be succeeding at one of the riskiest gambits of his Iowa campaign, an aggressive push to persuade non-Democrats to participate, according to the Washington Post. 

That news hasn't figured into the betting trend just yet when it comes to the long term picture, however. 

"The long term future odds are on Hillary Clinton to beat Barack Obama by a rather large margin," expressed Gambling911.com Senior Editor and Political Analyst, Payton O'Brien.  "As featured on the Gambling911.com website this week, Political prediction markets provide us -- the consumers of this information -- with a way to cut through this clutter.  And there is nothing but clutter when it comes to all these news stories about who is ahead of whom in Iowa and beyond."

Read More About Prediction Markets Here

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Christopher Costigan, Gambling911.com Publisher CCostigan@CostiganMedia.com

Originally published January 1, 2008 11:14 pm EST