The GOP Has Driven Off a Cliff"FOR George Bush, the presidency is becoming a tragic tale of unintended consequences. In foreign policy, the man who sought to transform Iraq, the Middle East and America's reputation has indeed had revolutionary effects, though not the ones he was aiming for. Now something similar seems to be happening in domestic politics. The most conservative president in recent history, a man who sought to turn his victories of 2000 and 2004 into a Republican hegemony, may well end up driving the Western world's most impressive political machine off a cliff."
These are the words that appear in this week's print edition of The Economist.
"Now they would settle for a lot less. Having recaptured Congress last year, the Democrats are on course to retake the presidency in 2008. Only one Republican, Rudy Giuliani, looks competitive in the polls, and his campaign is less slick than those of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Voters now favour generic Democratic candidates over Republican ones by wide margins."
An omen for the Republicans: This past weekend's Iowa Straw Polls.
Republican presidential candidate John McCain on Monday shrugged off his 10th-place finish in the Iowa straw poll this past weekend, calling such contests meaningless.
He may be wrong.
There were a few meaningful considerations from the Republican Straw Polls that truly stand out once we get beyond the "well paid off" win of Mitt Romney (who we trust won't be endorsed by PETA any time soon).
The most important revelation: That less than half of the expected 30,000 actually showed up to the event. Those are telling numbers that suggest a disinterest in the Republican party - now listed with 7 to 5 odds of winning the 2008 Presidency compared to the 5 to 8 odds placed on Democrats.
Initial reports suggest that Mitt Romney paid enough money to have those anticipated 30,000 people bused into Ames, Iowa (host of the weekend's Straw Poll), so getting people there probably wasn't an issue. It is after all a fun filled fair and those who really wanted to vote for a Fred Thompson or John McCain could still do so regardless of those candidates (or in the case of Thompson, would be candidates) lack of participation.
The second most telling story is that Mike Huckabee's second place finish does have meaning. He spent a whole lot less in Iowa than his counterpart Mitt Romney and when you look at this from a cost perspective, Huckabee got his money's worth. Let's face it, last week nobody knew who he was: Now he's this week's talk of the 2008 Presidential campaign. Photos of Huckabee playing guitar remind us somewhat of President Bill Clinton's sax days, which still stick in our mind for a reason: everybody loves an entertainer more than a politician.
Mike Huckabee's win in Iowa may be more important than most realize
Then there is Dr. Ron Paul out of Texas. While the mainstream press has written him off as the 5th place finisher, his supporters point out that based on number of days spent campaigning in Iowa compared with the number of votes received this past weekend, Paul could very well be declared the winner. He also had the biggest contingency of folks outside of Iowa.
Reality is that even those inclined to vote for another candidate down the road might very well have cast their vote for Romney on Saturday as a result of his paying their $35 fair fee. Iowans are after all very loyal people.
Be sure to check Gambling911.com daily for all the latest political betting news and trends here
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Christopher Costigan, Gambling911.com
Originally published August 14, 2007 9:53 am ET
