Before we get started there is a dire need to re-evaluate this past weekend's analyses and what went wrong after several straight winning weeks.

Granted, we did offer up the biggest upset of the week in San Francisco's outright win over Tampa, which Gambling911 predicted.

As you probably know by now we place heavy emphasis on team ratings models, past head-to-head history and ATS adjustments vs. Straight Up records.

Let's review where we failed and determine what adjustments need to be made for Week 9 of the NFL.

With Oakland's win in Tennessee Gambling911 noticed that the home team dominated this series.  Also the models agreed unanimously on Oakland having an edge but not by more than the line offered up.  There is nothing we could have done better to realize Oakland would win this one.

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With Washington's dismal performance against the Giants, we had no way of knowing this would happen, however, we did go against the more accurate Sonny Moore Ratings Model, which had New York able to cover.

Detroit and Chicago we knew would be close but it was the Bears who ended up winning by 3 in the final minutes of overtime.  Both Ratings Models had Detroit by 4.  Probably nothing we could do here to predict the outcome since this line was a solid 3 and it was pretty much a given that either team could be used in a 7 point teaser. 

The hunger factor we found was probably just enough to get Houston a win against Cleveland.  In any other given week we suspect the Browns would have won this but we suspect the Ratings Models will have some readjusting to do where the Browns are concerned. 

In our other losses for the week, Green Bay covered.  Jacksonville lost in St. Louis.  Kansas City was unable to cover.  Buffalo covered and so did Baltimore. 

Had we followed the Sonny Moore Model, Gambling911 would have gotten 3 of these in the win column.  This is why we will be placing more of an emphasis on the Sonny Moore Ratings Model during Week 9 of the NFL.

Our goal, selecting nearly every game on the board is to average around an 8-6 record (or thereabouts) each week - or approximately no more than 6 losses and a 57% record.  Of course, we will strive to perform better than this.

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Let us now begin to review this week's games:

Atlanta at Miami - The ATS vs Straight Up record is consistent and not worth further observation in this matchup.  We see that Covers.com gives the edge in nearly every category to Atlanta, which does have relevance since the line is only around -2 for Atlanta.  There is not enough past head-to-head regular season matchup analyses to go by.  We will then have to weigh heavily on the Ratings Models.  Sagarin has this one at even.  Moore has this one at Atlanta by 2 and so does StatFox.  This one opened at -2.  It's now at -1 1/2 at BetCRIS, which tells us the public has been on Miami and BetCRIS is trying to get action on Atlanta.  We will take Atlanta at -1 1/2 for a very small ONE STAR PLAY.  Atlanta by 3.

Carolina at Tampa - There is a needed adjustment on the ATS record vs Straight Up record for both these teams.  They have identical records for both in fact (5-2 SU and 3-4 ATS).  Not surprisingly, neither team really has a significant edge in this one.  Past history is especially telling here since Carolina has owned this one - more so last year - and even in the year previous won by 3 both teams.  That is good still considering the spread is only around -1/-2 for Carolina and on the surface appears beatable based on past history.  Of course we must believe that Tampa has improved over this time.  The previous year they dominated a so-so Bucs team.  So which team really is better than the other based on the Ratings Models?   Sagarin says Tampa should win by more than 4 points.  The Moore Model has the two teams evenly matched.  Tampa opened at -1 and evidentially everybody and their mother is on Carolina since the bookmakers are trying to get people to wager on Tampa.  Bodog.com has them all the way up to -2 1/2.  We're going with the past history here and a very small play on Carolina at -1.  Carolina by 3. 

Chicago at New Orleans - Chicago might actually turn out to be a decent team.  The line opened with Chicago as a -2 road favorite and has jumped all the way to -3 at BetUS, which is encouraging its players to be on the dog.  As for past history, New Orleans does have Chicago's number.  Sagarin believes Chicago can win by at least 3.  The Sonny Moore Model has them winning by more than 10 and lists New Orleans as the worst team in the league right now.  We'll have to go with the models for a small play on Chicago at -3.  Chicago by 4.

Cincinnati at Baltimore - This one is a solid Cincinnati -3 all around and the line opened there as well.  Head-to-head history suggests the Ravens will win this one, probably in a close matchup.  Sagarin has Cincinnati able to beat Baltimore by just under 3.  Sonny Moore has this one just shy of 3.  We certainly don't see this one as being a Cincinnati blowout.  Anticipate a field goal win here.  Baltimore by 3.

Detroit at Minnesota - The line here opened Detroit -1 1/2 and now many places have this one at Minnesota -1.  There is a tremendous edge here for Detroit, and that matters since there really isn't much of a spread.  Minnesota has absolutely dominated this series though winning the last 6.  Sagarin has Detroit winning by at least 2.  Sonny Moore has Detroit by 5.  There is enough here to ignore past head-to-head and believe Detroit is due to beat a very down Vikings team, albeit this should still be a close one.  We've had a tough time predicting the outcome of Lions games in recent weeks.

Houston at Jacksonville - Houston got their first win last week and they are probably still celebrating.  We don't expect them to be all that hungry this week while Jacksonville SHOULD be after a loss in St. Louis.  The only problem is Houston had their way with Jacksonville last year and are 3-1 in their past four games.  Sagarin says that Jacksonville can win by more than 20 points.  But based on this past head-to-head history, we will tend to side with the Sonny Moore Model which suggests a 10 point win.  Hence, we don't see Jacksonville able to cover the spread.  The Jaguars wins for the most part have been within 10 points this season as an fyi.   

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Oakland at Kansas City - Could it be that Oakland is starting to get good now?  Both Sagarin and Moore have the Raiders among the top 15 teams still regardless of a lackluster start to the season.  With the exception of its home matchup vs San Diego, Oakland has performed well against two decent teams and a not-so-good road team over its last four games.  Oakland started off the season playing against three elite teams, one of which was Kansas City - and they lost to them.  Could this be sweet revenge?  Kansas City has owned this series, they've won the last 5 against Oakland.  They would have been
3-2 if using the current spread of -4 1/2.  Sagarin does have KC able to win by a touchdown while the Sonny Moore Model has KC winning by less than a field goal.  We're going with the Moore Model here, thinking the revenge factor will also come into play, whereas the Chiefs will win by no more than a field goal. 

San Diego at New York Jets - Wow!  The Jets are a +7 home dog against San Diego.  Who would have thunk it after last year's performance?  The Jets have owned this series in the last three however.  Sagarin does have San Diego as its third ranked best team in the league right now, and capable of beating New York by more than 8 points.  The Sonny Moore Model is also telling us that the Chargers can win by at least 6 points in the Meadowlands.  Considering the line opened at -5 1/2, that might be a good reason to take San Diego -6 for a very small play while the number is still available.

Tennessee at Cleveland - A matchup between two bad teams, one of which will actually be able to increase its number of wins to THREE after this week (unless they tie).  It opened at -3.  We should point out that recreational book Sports Interaction is trying to encourage action on Cleveland, as is BetGameDay for that matter.  Right off the bat, Tennessee is looking somewhat encouraging.  In the last two regular season matchups between these teams, Cleveland won by a field goal.  Tennessee does have a slight edge in a number of key areas.  And while Sagarin gives Cleveland the nudge with a 4 point win, Moore is just under the field goal so we like the Titans quite a bit to possibly even beat Cleveland, or at least cover. 

New York Giants at San Fransisco - Because the New York Giants should win this game, we don't see them going 6-2 Straight Up but only 4-3 ATS, though it is possible.  San Francisco has played the Giants well during two games in the past three years, but since that time a lot has changed and these are teams going in the opposite direction mighty quickly.  This one opened Giants -9 1/2 and is already up to -11 1/2 at some books, obviously trying to get action on San Francisco.  The funny thing is that Sagarin only has New York able to win by 9 points.  Sonny Moore has this right on 9 1/2.   Last week we correctly predicted a 49ers upset.  We won't go that far this week but will say this one has all the makings of a game that falls within a half point of the line.  We say Giants win by 9 and San Francisco covers. 

Seattle at Arizona - Seattle has gone 5-1 in this series over the last 6 games and three were blowouts.  Granted, the Cardinals won their last home game against the Seahawks.  Interestingly enough, Sagarin has Seattle capable of winning by a touchdown on the road in Arizona while Sonny Moore has Seattle winning by 4 1/2 points (right where the line is).  But because most books have gone off the 4 1/2 to a -4, that is the line we will take.  Our prediction is that Seattle wins by 5 points in Arizona. 

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Pittsburgh at Green Bay - We simply cannot see Green Bay walking away from Week 9 with a 5-3 ATS record.  They are after all 1-6 Straight Up, a terrible team now.  There is no recent head-to-head history.  Look at the huge line movement here in favor of Green Bay from Pittsburgh -6 (where incidentally Sports Interaction still holds this number and is obviously encouraging action on the dog Green Bay) to -3 1/2 Pittsburgh.  But alas Sagarin has Pittsburgh able to win here by a touchdown.  Moore has Pittsburgh winning by no more than a field goal.  We gotta do Pittsburgh here at -3 1/2 even though this line looks too good to be true.  This is a tough one indeed.

Philadelphia at Washington - This one opened Redskins a PK and now the bookmakers are trying to get action on Philly by moving it up to -3.  Washington will no doubt be looking to make up for last week's debacle, a 36 point blow out in the Meadowlands at the hands of the Giants.  Philly owns this series though they've played two of the last four head-to-heads close and Washington is improving while the Eagles show signs of struggling.  Sagarin has Washington able to win by more than 5 points and Moore has them able to win by about 3 points.  We will take Washington -2 at BetWWTS.com. 

And finally, the big matchup that everybody has been waiting for:

Indianapolis at New England - We see this one as the first challenge of Indianapolis's undefeated schedule.  And who would have imagined New England a +4 dog at home?  New England though has pretty much owned the Colts over these past few years.  Sagarin has this one even.  But Moore has Indianapolis able to win by a touch down.  We will be on Indianapolis at -3.

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MORE PLAYS COMING SHORTLY

One Star Play

Atlanta -1 1/2
Carolina -1
Chicago -3
San Diego -6
Pittsburgh -3 1/2

Two Star Play

Detroit +1
Houston +14
San Francisco +11 1/2

Three Star Play

Baltimore +3
Oakland +5
Titans +3
Seattle -4
Washington -2
Indianapolis -3

Four Star Play

No Plays

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Gambling911.com Sports Handicapping

Originally published November 4, 2005 12:48 am EST