|
Free Week 7 NFL picks
Here we are once again
with our Free Week 7 NFL picks. Last week,
Gambling911.com managed to walk away with an impressive
10-3 record (2-0 for our Four Star plays). The
previous week we were 7-6-1 record. Our Four Star plays
are now 8-3 thus far. Watch for Lisa Perry's Free
Week 7 NFL picks shortly. Lisa Perry went 10-4
this past week. Be sure to check out all the free
picks and prediction models featured on the
Gambling911.com Home Page
We will start off by
examining four games for Thursday's review followed by
the rest of the Week 7 NFL card over the next 24 hours.
A key component that we
look at is whether or not the ATS record jives with that
of the Straight Up win record.
$25 FREE play when you
deposit using eCheck. 35% to 100% in FREE bonuses.
Detroit is 4-1 ATS with
a Straight Up record of 2-3. If they were to win
in Cleveland this week, the team would have a 5-1 ATS
record and be 3-3. This is difficult to fathom.
The last regular season game was in 2001 so past
head-to-head history is somewhat irrelevant here.
Looking at the team ratings models we find that Sagarin
lists Cleveland with a three point differential over
Detroit without any home team advantage. Tack one
on and now they can win by 6. The Sonny Moore
Ratings System, which was quite accurate this past week,
actually has Detroit as a slight favorite. While
it is difficult to see Detroit going 5-1 ATS with only a
3-3 record, we also find this is due primarily to close
games. It is not out of the question to see
Detroit cover even the +2 1/2 spread and still lose.
This is a very
difficult game to pick but we just cannot see Detroit
walking off after Week 7 with a 5-1 ATS record.
Gambling911 will lean more in favor of Sagarin this
week. A very small One Star Play. In fact,
it is the third Detroit game in a row that was featured
as a One Star Play. This one opened at Cleveland
-1 1/2 and has jumped all the way up to -3, therefore
the action is primarily on Cleveland it seems.
We've been on
Indianapolis the last few weeks for a reason.
Their 4-2 ATS record simply does not jive with their 6-0
undefeated record. They lose this week and go 6-1,
we're looking at a 4-3 ATS record. This makes
little sense. Barring a disaster, the Colts should
go 7-0 against Houston and the Texans should go 0-6!!!!
Houston having a 2-4 ATS record simply would not make
much sense either.
Bet on every outcome of
every play with in-progress wagering. Excellent
online experience
Houston likewise has
not shown they are hungry for a win. They continue
to get pounced on week after week.
(click
here for site) has this one at Indianapolis -15.
Some books have the Colts all the way to -16 and the
line opened at -14 1/2. How much can Indy win by
though? Sagarin says they can win by 17 1/2 (or
two touchdowns and a field goal).
Indianapolis has won 6
of 6, three by more than 15 points. Houston has
not been able to score this year, and outside of the
Bengals, they've been beaten by 14 or more points in
five of their last six games. If we had to settle
for the more likely trend Houston follows as it relates
to past history, we would say they will lose by the
larger sum considering how well Indy has played and the
Texans have not.
The Sonny Moore Model
has the Colts able to win here by 14 1/2 points.
Another tough one to
call but in the end we can't see any reason why
Indianapolis would not blow out Houston and we just
cannot fathom Indy with a 4-3 ATS record compared to the
7-0 Straight up record the team is bound to have after
Week 7. Another tough one to call.
Green Bay has won three
of its last four against Minnesota. They lost the
last game against the Vikings pretty badly so there is a
bit of a revenge factor here...and why not take care of
matters when the Vikings are down?
The Packers proved they
can score after destroying the New Orleans Saints.
Green Bay is a -1 1/2
point favorite here. The Sonny Moore Model has
Green Bay capable of winning by 4 points or more and
since this model tends to be the more conservative,
Green Bay will probably win, but again, this is a small
play.
YouWager.com is one of the
most popular sportsbooks among Gambling911 readers
Past history says the
Saints will play St. Louis close. They will be
hungry for a win no doubt especially after this past
week. The Rams are a -3 favorite and do have the
advantage. Marc Bulger is not likely to play for
the Rams either this coming week. The Sonny Moore
Ratings Model has the Rams able to win by 2 1/2.
Gambling911 would tend to lean just slightly towards New
Orleans in this one.
Pittsburgh has
dominated Cincinnati in their last 10 head-to-head
matchups since 2000. In fact, the Bengals have
only one a single game against Pittsburgh. This
does not bode well for the Bengals in terms of past
history. The two teams also match up well.
In looking at the team
power ratings models we find that Sagarin allows
Cincinnati to beat Pittsburgh by a touch down, and guess
what? The Sonny Moore Model actually agrees.
Even the StatFox Model has Cincy winning by at least 2
points. Super tough game to pick but we'll go with
the agreeing team rating models and say Bengals is an
improved enough team to wipe away past head-to-head
history.
When it comes to San
Diego playing in Philly we know one thing, The Chargers
have played well on the road. Their losses have
been close as well. And since this is a +4 spread,
on the surface we gotta like San Diego. There is
not enough previous head-to-head history for serious
review.
San Diego even has an
edge in a number of important categories including
points/game and yards gained.
Now we go to the
ratings models. Sagarin says that Pittsburgh can
win but that the Chargers will cover since the Steelers
will win by only 3 points. The Moore Model has
this one dead even.
There is so much to
suggest at the very least this will be a close enough
game that San Diego covers.
In the last
head-to-head match up between Kansas City and Miami, KC
clobbered the Dolphins on its own home field by 18
points. That was three years ago. Both teams
were good then. Both teams are relatively good
today, though one can argue the Dolphins are not quite
as good.
This game will be
played Friday night October 21 due to the potential for
Hurricane Wilma to start impacting South Florida by
Sunday.
Sagarin has the Chiefs
able to win by 2 on the road in Miami and the Sonny
Moore Model agrees. In fact, all the models are
unanimous here. So with Kansas City a +2 dog at
(click
here for site) it seems like a logical enough play.
We'll know soon enough.
Washington beat San
Francisco on the road by 10 points last year. Over
the last four games, not surprisingly, the Redskins have
begun to dominate whereas a very good San Fran team
dominated during much of the 90's. It is safe to
say that recent past history allows Washington to cover
the 12 1/2 points. But what do the models say?
Sagarin has Washington
by two touchdowns while Moore has the Redskins winning
by only 8 and Statfox has them winning by 16.
The Redskins have shown
they can play with the big boys even in losses these
past two weeks. They should be hungry to devour
the listless 49'ers, and that defense should not allow
San Francisco to score many points at home. We'll
have to lean on the Redskins at -12 1/2.
Past history between
Dallas and Seattle is back and forth, however, the
Cowboys did beat Seattle on the road last year.
Dallas's losses have been relatively close so there is a
strong likelihood they can keep this within a field
goal, thus covering the +4 line currently available.
Sagarin, however, has
Seattle capable of beating Dallas by more than 10
points. The Moore Model has Seattle by 3, which
seems a more likely scenario. Statfox has Seattle
winning by 2 points. Disregarding the Sagarin
Model, which at times seems way too aggressive, this one
looks like a push or win for Dallas - that later if you
get it for +4. Seattle should win by a field goal.
We can see the Cowboys pulling off a sneak win by a
field goal or less as well.
In progress wagering, Free
$25 bet with eCheck deposit, up to 100% in bonuses.
WOW!
Past history in the
Baltimore/Chicago matchup is simply not a factor since
there is not enough to go by. Baltimore has not
been able to score more than 17 points this season while
the Bears have shown glimmers of hope at home, scoring
28 and 38 points in two of their games against Minnesota
and Detroit, respectively.
Now we go to the
models. Sagarin has Chicago by 10. And while
that is aggressive, the Moore Ratings Model, which
performed so accurately last week for us has Chicago
more than able to cover the PK by a 5 point margin.
We then look at Statfox, which has these two teams at
equal capabilities but with Chicago having the advantage
at home by at least a field goal. Overwhelmingly,
the ratings models point to Chicago. Neither team
is that great but at least the Bears have shown to be
somewhat effective at home. This one falls just
shy of a FOUR STAR PLAY. Bears PK
Okay, can we finally
diffuse the idea that Oakland is a good team despite
their 1-4 record? They are NOT. Last year
they were only able to beat Buffalo by 3 points at home.
One scary thing to note about Buffalo, however, is
they've had a tough time playing on the road thus far.
The teams they have played (New Orleans and Tampa Bay)
are better than the Raiders though. And the Bills
enter this one with some degree of confidence having
beaten both Miami and the Jets at home to now own a 3-3
record, best in their respective division.
Both Statfox and Sonny
Moore have Buffalo able to beat Oakland outright on the
road...just barely, but certainly enough to cover a -3
line. Sagarin has the Raiders by a touchdown.
Raiders are a tough team but they will also likely be
missing Moss, who is listed as doubtful at press time
Thursday evening.
We are on Buffalo, but
admittedly that Sagarin rating and the Bills inability
to play on the road troubles us.
Credit cards, Western
Union, eChecks all accepted. Free Cash bonuses and
great lines
With Denver at New York
Giants there is no past history to go by other than a
Denver home win in 2001. That is not very helpful.
Both teams have changed dramatically since then and
Denver is a much better team at home.
Even if Denver were to
lose, there is still a problem with the difference
between its Straight Up record and ATS considering this
is one of the hottest teams in the league right now.
Denver, in fact, is tied with Tampa Bay and Cincinnati
for the 2nd best record in the league and its only loss
came at the hands of Miami during Week 1 under very hot
conditions. Denver at that time looked as if it
might easily be one of the worst teams this season, but
my how things have changed. Denver has played some
tough opponents, even on the road (a la Jacksonville)
and all five of their last opponents are potential
playoff teams.
The Giants, though
good, might miss the playoffs even though they start off
the season with a decent 3-2 record, beating average to
below average teams all at home....and pretty decisively
we might add.
Sagarin has Denver
capable of winning here. The Moore model has the
two teams evenly matched and Giants able to win at home
by 2 to 3 points. The line is -1 1/2, which favors
New York. Statfox also has Denver by 2 points.
Here we have yet
another tough game to call. Giants home record
speaks volumes while Denver's overall record does the
same and simply cannot be ignored (most telling was that
Jaguars defeat in Jacksonville). And despite the
Giants ability to blow out teams at home, the most
likely scenario here is a close game.
We would have to ever
so slightly lean towards Denver as the +2 dog.
This one opened as a PK with most of the early action
going on New York.
The last regular season
game between Arizona and Tennessee was back in 1997 when
the Titans pummeled the Cardinals - on the road no
less - 44 to 14. Obviously these two teams are
different now then they were 8 years ago so we simply do
not have substantial past head-to-head history to go by.
Sagarin has Tennessee
able to beat Arizona on the road by 3. Sonny Moore
has the two teams about even in Arizona and so does
Statfox. With Arizona a -4 favorite, we would
anticipate the Titans able to cover at +4.
The last time the New
York Jets played Atlanta in a regular season game was in
1998. Again, not enough substantial head-to-head
history. Atlanta pretty much has the edge here and
is easily seen as the better team.
They also have a rather
lofty number to cover at -7 to -7 1/2 depending on
the sportsbook.
Sagarin has Atlanta by
9. Moore has this one Atlanta by 7 exactly.
Statfox has this one at Atlanta 8.
Needless-to-say, the models are all pretty much in
agreement. We would guess Atlanta wins it by at
least 7 so a -7 1/2 line is not all that bad.
Sign up now and start
wagering online in minutes. Phone wagers also
welcome.
One Star Play
Cleveland -2 1/2
Indianapolis -15
Green Bay -1 1/2
Cincinnati PK
Washington -12 1/2
Buffalo +3
Denver +2
Two Star Play
New Orleans +3
San Diego +4
Dallas +4
Tennessee +4
Atlanta -7 1/2
Three Star Play
Kansas City +2
Chicago PK
Four Star Play
Sorry no Four Star Plays this week
---
Gambling911.com Sports
Handicapping
Originally published
October 21, 2005 1:44 am EST
|
