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Free Week 6 NFL picks
Here we are once again
with our Free Week 6 NFL picks. Last week,
Gambling911.com managed to walk away with a 7-6-1 record
(2-2 for our top four star consensus picks). Watch
for Lisa Perry's Free Week 6 NFL picks shortly and be
sure to check out all the free picks and prediction
models featured on the
Gambling911.com Home Page
We begin by looking at
ATS records that simply do not jive with Straight Up
records. Week 6 is always a good time for the
linesmakers to try and polish up these records to better
coincide with one another.
The Denver Broncos ATS
record boggles the mind considering this team has been
somewhat of a surprise at 4-1 after starting off
terrible their first week. The Broncos ATS record
is a somewhat lopsided 3-2. New England plays its
second straight road game against a very hot Denver team
at a very high altitude. Denver is not likely to
lose against this banged up Patriots team at home, so
let's assume they go 5-1 after this season. Will
they really be 3-3 ATS? Now let's assume a
straight up loss. Will they really be 4-2 Straight
up and 3-3 ATS? That later borders on being
reasonable, but these records simply don't jive so we
now take a look at the ratings models, which tend to be
better polished this point in the season.
Does your local bookie
offer same day payouts, free cash, online wagering, best
lines?
As we suspected, the
linesmakers have this one undervalued with Denver
favored only by -3 at all bookmakers across the board.
The Sagarin rating model suggests that the Broncos can
easily win at home by more than a touchdown against New
England. We have also reviewed the Sonny Moore
Power Ratings for accuracy to determine that Denver
should win here by at least 5 points.
In the last three games
since 2001, Denver is 2-1. Considering we have a
weaker New England Patriots team playing against a red
hot Denver team, this past history is significant in
pointing towards Denver as having a significant
advantage here.
Now let's take a look
at Houston playing in Seattle. We simply have got
to believe that Seattle will win this one straight up,
barring a complete disaster. The Texans could not
even beat the Titans on their own home field. Now
they come into Seattle against what is a fairly
impressive Seahawks team.
Assuming a loss, Does
the 0-5 Houston Texans team maintain a 2-3 ATS record?
Though this is not completely unreasonable (being it is
still a losing ATS record) we deem it quite unlikely.
While there is no
head-to-head matchup history to compare, the ratings
models speak volumes. Even without a home team
advantage, the Sagarin Model suggests Seattle can win by
at least two touchdowns. Being that the line here
is Seattle -9, this leaves enough of a cushion to take
into consideration Houston's desperation (which should
have been shown last week but was not) and Seattle's let
down (similar to what we witnessed when the Bengals
played the Texans a few weeks ago).
Sonny Moore takes a
more conservative approach, having Seattle win by 10
points, and that is pretty much what we anticipate
happening here. A 10 point to two touchdown defeat
by Seattle.
Indiana is 3-2 against
the spread, which seems absurd being that they are
5-0 undefeated. St. Louis is just not good enough
to win against the Pacers on their home field and in
prime time. We'll assume for a moment that the
Colts go 6-0. Do they really also hold a 3-3 ATS
record? That to us makes little sense.
Again we see a case of
the linesmakers offering up what is essentially an
undervalued line on this game, despite how things may
look on the surface. St. Louis will have a tough
time scoring against the Colts defense while
Indianapolis continues on a tear and WILL take the Rams
seriously. St. Louis wins by playing haphazardly
and they won't get away with this in Indianapolis.
Even the more
conservative Sonny Moore power ratings has Indianapolis
winning by 12, which is 1 point shy of the actually -13
line.
And St. Louis' two wins
against two below average teams were no more than 5
points. Indianapolis, by the way, has not allowed
a team to score over 10 points.
Another lopsided ATS
record that needs adjusting is no doubt Tampa Bay and
their 2-3 ATS vs. 4-1 Straight Up win record.
Ricky Williams debuts in Tampa this season with the home
team having a -4 line that has only moved up a half
point since opening at -4.
Past history is all
preseason so we are forced to rely pretty solely on the
ratings models. Sagarin has Tampa able to win by a
touchdown. Moore has Tampa able to win by 5
points. Because the Bucs lost last week we fully
anticipate this team to be at its best playing the
Dolphins.
The Tennessee Titans
hosting Cincinnati Bengals seems a tough matchup to
call. The line cries out "upset" since Gambling911
sees a lot of suckers on the Bengals...at least on the
surface. Tennessee, after all, has two wins.
One of these was to the hideous 0-4 Texans. Their
other win was to another bad team, the Ravens. Two
of the Titans losses came at the hands of Pittsburgh and
Indianapolis, respectively. Those were blowouts.
Despite what the
ratings models say (Sagarin suggests a blowout while
Moore has this one at better than a touch down), it is
history that tells us the Titans can pull this one off
or at least cover the -3 point line (we'll go out on a
limb and say that the Bengals win by a field goal).
Recent three year
history is always a great indicator of how teams
should perform against one another unless there has
been a drastic change in one or both of the teams.
In New Orleans last
four games against Atlanta, they either won (3 of 4) or
were within 3. The line here is Atlanta -6 and
this one is all over the place. You can find a
line ranging anywhere from -4 1/2 at
Matchbook to -6 at
BetUS.com.
Of course we would focus on New Orleans +6, who suffered
an embarrassing loss last week at the hands of Green
Bay. We do not expect the same against Atlanta
based on the previous head-to-head history here.
The Sagarin Ratings
Model has Atlanta able to win this one by only a field
goal and Moore's has likewise. If we were to
remove the home field advantage, we'd probably still be
looking at New Orleans cover with a +6, though we do
think they can win straight up. There is the
potential for a middling opportunity as an fyi.
Past head-to-head
history likewise suggests Carolina can beat Detroit and
therefore cover the -1 Detroit spread with ease.
Matchbook does have
the Panthers favored at press time by -1. It is
the only book we know of that has Carolina as the
favorite.
Does your local bookie
offer same day payouts, free cash, online wagering, best
lines?
Both the Sagarin and
Moore models have Detroit able to win by at least a
field goal.
Keep in mind that
Carolina's only two losses of the season thus far were
each by 3 points.
Detroit has won
somewhat convincingly both times at home this season,
albeit against the substandard Ravens and Packers.
There is plenty of
head-to-head history between the Browns and Ravens.
In three of the four games, the Ravens blew out
Cleveland. This is a slightly improved Browns team
and a downgraded Baltimore team, that cannot score.
The Ravens have not scored more than 17 points this
season, not that Cleveland is much better.
Baltimore though is a
-6 favorite, opening at -4 and the linesmakers are
obviously trying to get action on Cleveland.
Cleveland, however,
does have the edge in most areas and they are more than
capable of playing on the road.
Interestingly enough,
Sagarin sees the Browns as one of the top 10 rated
teams. Moore has them at #19, still a ways from
the bottom. One common denominator is that both
ratings models list Baltimore close to the bottom and
Cleveland more than capable of pulling off a win here.
With the Chicago
Bears/Minnesota Vikings series, the home team has won by
3 points or more over the last four. Neither team
is very good though.
A line of Chicago -2
1/2 can still be found at
Matchbook.
Does your local bookie
offer same day payouts, free cash, online wagering, best
lines?
Sagarin shows a big
Chicago win while the more conservative Moore ratings
model has Chicago by 4.
There is some good
head-to-head matchup history between the Cowboys and
Giants. Last year the subpar Giants were able to
go 2-0 in the series. Dallas went 2-0 the year
before that. Now both teams appear to be improved
though the Giants might be a bit more consistent.
Granted, New York has
only played one road game this season and they lost it
to San Diego.
We are left to look at
the ratings models here to determine who should win in
this matchup. Sagarin might be a little generous
giving it to Dallas with a touchdown. The Moore
model actually has New York capable of winning by 5
points.
Based on recent history
we will lean only slightly on the Giants as a +3 1/2 dog
at
BetUS.com
Bet on Giants vs. Cowboys
at BLS and receive a $25 Free play +15% cash bonus
Throughout history,
Kansas City has had its way with Washington. The
only problem is that the most recent history was in the
year 2001.
Washington is playing
some very tight games this season (most of which have
been on the winning side). All of their games have
won or lost by no more than 3 points.
Sagarin has this one
dead even. Moore has Kansas City favored by a
point.
There is nothing here
to suggest that the Redskins cannot cover a +6 spread as
found at
BetUS.com.
After all, this is a team that nearly beat Denver on its
own field. KC is just as hard to play at and DC is
on its second straight road trip. There are
variables in place to suggest Washington won't be as in
control here even though we'd lean on them to cover ever
so slightly.
With Buffalo vs. The
Jets, the home team has won the past 4 matchups.
Last year, the two games were quite close.
Sagarin has both teams
equal. Moore has Buffalo able to win by a field
goal. Since the line is -3, it's a tough one with
past history enough to go in favor of Buffalo - yet
another small play.
And finally we have San
Diego in Oakland. The Chargers dominate here and
can still be gotten at -1 1/2 San Diego at
BetWWTS.
San Diego has the edge here in nearly every category.
Does your local bookie
offer same day payouts, free cash, online wagering, best
lines?
As for team ratings,
Sagarin has this one about equal while the Moore model
shows San Diego can win by more than 5 points.
Good 6 Point Teaser
Teams:
Carolina +7
New Orleans +12
Seattle -3
Cleveland +12
1 Star Plays
Carolina +1
Washington +6
Buffalo -3
Giants +3 1/2
2 Star Plays
Seattle -9
Indianapolis -13
Tennessee +3
3 Star Plays
Tampa Bay -4
New Orleans +6
Cleveland +6
Chicago -2 1/2
4 Star Plays
Denver -3
San Diego -1 1/2
Uncertain
Jacksonville at
Pittsburgh
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Gambling911.com Sports
Handicapping
Originally published
October 13, 2005 11:59 pm EST
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