Last Week Gambling911.com managed to hold a winning record with the early games, broke even with the afternoon games and won both Sunday Night and Monday Night's games.  This followed a Thanksgiving bomb that ultimately resulted in a winning week, 9-7 record.  We'll take it!

But there were also a few crucial errors our team made that could have easily resulted in an 11-5 record for Week 12.  One was the mistake made on Seattle as a dog playing in New York.  Obviously, Seattle was the favorite at home and as such we had to make that our selection after picking Seattle as a DOG.  Once the mistake was realized, it became quite clear to us that the Giants would indeed cover.  The mistake was not recognized until just prior to game time unfortunately.

Another error was not one involving the wrongful posting of a line but rather our reliance on the team ratings models with the Detroit/Atlanta game.  This is one where we should have been on Atlanta.  Oh well, it doesn't help to Monday Night quarterback now but we can learn from such mistakes going into Week 13.

One quick note, heavy line movements can have significant ramifications on the likely outcome of a particular game and often they occur after these picks are made.  Such was the case with the San Francisco at Tennessee game where the books had a strong late opinion on the Titans heading into Sunday's game. 

Incidentally, it's been a brutal season thus far for the online sportsbooks.  Gambling911.com cannot overemphasize the importance of betting only with our endorsed sportsbooks These are all companies that have been around for 4 or more years and are more than able to sustain this season's bloodbath. 

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Atlanta at Carolina: The line here is super steady with Carolina -3 and hasn't moved at all with the noteworthy exception of BetUS.com This tells us that they have a solid opinion on the dog winning, in this case Atlanta.  The fact that recreational books like Sports Interaction haven't moved upwards with the line at this early time (early Thursday am) speaks volumes.

The Straight Up record vs ATS record which becomes essential this year in terms of oddsmakers adjustments to accurately reflect team performance as the season winds down really do not have any impact in this game since both teams have identical ATS records of 6-5.

Now when we review the Team Ratings Models, Sagarin has Carolina able to win here by 5 and the Sonny Moore Model tends to be in a agreement. 

This is a tough one to call.  Here we have two of the better team ratings models in agreement with one another yet the books are not encouraging action on Carolina and in fact BetUS.com holds a strong opinion on this game, favoring Atlanta.

At this early stage in the game, Gambling911.com will watch for additional line movements.

Green Bay at Chicago:  Green Bay's ATS vs SU record must be adjusted.  If they cover or even win straight up, Green Bay finds itself with an abysmal
3-9 straight up record while a 6-6 ATS record would expose serious oddsmaker flaws.  The oddsmakers we expect to ensure the two records better coincide.  Regardless of what the team ratings models suggest or where the line is going at various books, Gambling911.com will be on the favorite here, Chicago, at the best possible line.

Indeed the line is steady at -7, which tends to sometimes suggest a win by the dog.  5Dimes.com has moved up off the -7 to -7 1/2 which means they have an opinion on the game that leans towards the favorite.  5Dimes.com wants action on the dog for a reason!  They feel strongly the favorite will win. 

Then there are the ratings models which do concur that this line is undervalued with Sagarin suggesting Chicago can win by more than 10 and Sonny Moore believing that Chicago can win by a little over 7.

Gambling911.com is on Chicago at -7.

Watch for more great plays throughout the day Thursday and Friday. 

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Minnesota at Detroit: Special guest handicapper this week, Bobby Bobbowski, offered his free pick on Detroit We will see how he does and if Gambling911.com is in agreement.  

The books are definitely looking to get action on the favorite here, meaning strong opinion leaning towards the dog winning.  Detroit going 7-5 ATS bothers us somewhat should they cover and especially if their straight up record sits at 4-8.  5-7 SU and 7-5 ATS can even out next week, especially if Detroit were to win.

As for the team ratings models, Sagarin has Detroit able to win and Moore has Minnesota able to win by 2 points. 

We will have to go with Detroit here at +3, which is where this one opened by the way. 

Buffalo at Miami: Miami opened as a -3 point favorite.  The online sportsbooks have brought this one all the way up to Miami -5 1/2, indicating a strong opinion on the favorite Miami here. 

Sagarin suggests Miami can win by just over 4 points.  Moore says by 2 points. 

The way this line is moving though suggests a nice size win by Miami, probably 6 or more point differential.  We will be slightly on Miami at -4.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh:  The line opened at -4 and has fallen to Pittsburgh -2 at BetUS.com which suggests a strong opinion on the dog winning here, that being the Bengals.  Sagarin has Pittsburgh winning by only 2 1/2 points (most books have this one between -3 and -3 1/2).  But even more telling is that Sonny Moore has the Bengals capable of winning this game in Pittsburgh. 

Dallas at New York Giants: The line has not moved off 3 at all.  Sagarin has New York winning by 4.  Moore has Dallas able to win by 2.  We will be on Dallas.

Houston at Baltimore:  Houston going 5-7 ATS after this week with a 1-10 record?  Somehow we can't see it.  The line movements slightly favor a Baltimore win though in no way is it decisive at this point in time.  Sagarin has Baltimore by 10 points though and Moore has them able to win by 7 1/2.  We say Baltimore wins by at least 9 points.  This one opened at -7 but can still be found at -8. 

Tampa Bay at New Orleans:  An adjustment is in order here.  Even if Tampa were to lose they would end up with a straight up record of 7-5 vs an ATS record of 5-7 while New Orleans would have an ATS record of 6-5-1.  Something has to give.  If Tampa wins but fails to cover, how can they possibly go 8-5 SU and 5-7 ATS?

It is feasible SHOULD New Orleans win however.  The oddsmakers could be anticipating a Bucs meltdown in the final weeks and a brief - albeit late - resurgence by the New Orleans Saints. 

The line hasn't moved off of Tampa Bay -3 1/2 anywhere as the away favorite.  This suggests the potential for a dog victory.

But more telling still is the fact that Sagarin only has Tampa able to win by about 1 1/2 points.  This is an indication that New Orleans could pull off a victory here.  The Moore Model only has Tampa able to win by 4 1/2 points, which is just slightly better than the actual line.

There is a very slight lean in favor of a New Orleans win here though, we think outright.  Otherwise, Tampa should cover.

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Tennessee at Indianapolis: Indy has got to win this one at home.  And will Tennessee really cover and go 6-6 ATS with a 3-9 Straight Up record.  It won't be the Titans that destroy the Colts undefeated record.  If it IS then we deserve to lose here.  Otherwise we have got to be high on Indianapolis. 

Sports Interaction has brought this line up to Indianapolis -16, up from the -14 1/2 opening line, which indicates a strong opinion on the favorite winning.  We of course would prefer the -15 line still offered at some books. 

The ability level between both teams is extreme, with Sagarin pointing to the potential here for a 22 1/2 point win.  And The Moore Ratings Model has Indy able to win by more than 17 points.  This is a strong play on Indianapolis at
-15.

Arizona at San Francisco:  Arizona is a rare road favorite in this one - a -3 favorite to be exact and not one single online sportsbook has moved off this line, which can suggest just about anything.  There is certainly not a strong opinion to be had on either team.

It would certainly be difficult to fathom the 49ers with a 6-6 ATS record after this week.

Now let's look at what the team ratings models have to say.  Sagarin has this one just about even.  Moore has Arizona able to win by one point.  This is a tough one but we gotta give the edge to Arizona here, though it will more likely end up being a push (Arizona wins it by 3 points).  

Washington at St. Louis:  Here is another one that is just sitting on the 3.  St. Louis is a +3 home dog here.  It's hard to believe after Washington's surprisingly good start that both teams have identical records of 5-6.  It certainly doesn't seem like St. Louis is close to .500.  One of these teams will be at .500 after this game is over. 

Sagarin sees Washington winning just shy of 3 points and Moore agrees.

Our money will be on St. Louis at +3.

Denver at Kansas City: What promises to be a good game opened with neither team the favorite.  The line has moved in favor of Denver at some of the usual suspects including Sports Interaction with its -1 1/2 line on Denver.  There is an opinion that Denver will win here, with action encouraged on the dog.  The ATS and SU records for both teams match up perfectly.

Sagarin believes that Denver can win here by 2 1/2 points at least.  The normally conservative Moore Ratings model suggests Denver can win by even more, 4 points.  This is a strong play on Denver as a PK based on all elements pointing in that direction. 

New York Jets at New England: Because the line hasn't really moved much off the 10, there is an implication that the Jets could cover here.  The SU vs ATS comparison lends us to believe that New England should be able to cover barring an outright loss, which we just don't see here.  After this week, New England would be 7-5 with a 4-8 ATS record if they failed to cover. 

Sagarin has the Patriots able to win by 13 1/2 points.  Moore has this one at a 9 point win.  We really believe though that New England will capitalize here with a win over more than 10 points. 

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Oakland at San Diego: This one opened at San Diego -10 and has moved up to -11 1/2.  Some of the usual suspects aren't quite as opinionated on a Chargers win however.  Then again, Sagarin has San Diego able to win by 11 1/2 points.  And Moore likewise has San Diego winning by 11 points.  Plus Oakland would have a 6-6 ATS record and 4-8 SU record if they covered by failed to win.  Our money will be riding on San Diego at -10.

Seattle at Philadelphia: The line opened with the Eagles as a rare home dog of +3 and most books had this one sitting at +4 across the board. 

Sagarin has Seattle able to win by only 1 point.  Moore has Seattle able to win by just a bit less than 4. 

The implication here is that Philadelphia could win outright.  We have Philadelphia +3 1/2. 

Jacksonville at Cleveland: Line movements indicate opinion on the dog Cleveland +3.  Sagarin believes that Jacksonville can win by 5 1/2 and Moore says by 4.  But because it was 31 degrees just prior to game time and with light snow, this favors Cleveland just enough.  Feels like 21 degrees. 

One Star Plays:

Miami -4
Dallas +3
Atlanta -3
New Orleans +3 1/2
Arizona -3
Philadelphia +3 1/2

Two Star Plays:

St. Louis +3
Cleveland +3

Three Star Plays:

Chicago -7
Detroit +3
New England -10
San Diego -10

Four Star Plays:

Cincinnati +3 1/2
Baltimore -8
Indianapolis -15
Denver PK

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Gambling911.com Sports Handicapping Service

Originally published December 1, 2005 12:23 am EST