Going into Week 11, Gambling911.com is now 53-41-2 overall with its free picks that include a review of all team rating models, past head-to-head matchups and ATS vs Straight up records.  This is a winning record of 56.4%  Ultimately our goal is to be somewhere between 57% and 60% on the season.

Here we go with the free Week 11 NFL picks.  Some good one's for sure.

Jacksonville at Tennessee - With an opening line of Jacksonville -4, this one has hardly moved.  Recreational shops such as Sports Interaction are trying to encourage betting on Tennessee, which normally suggests the book is fond of the favorite.  Bodog.com is another one going in this direction. 

This series, however, tends to be tight and tends to favor Tennessee. 

The Sagarin Ratings Model has Jacksonville able to win by just over 7.  Sonny Moore has them winning by just over 5.  This is a tough one for us only because of the past history results but we'll have to lean more with the ratings models and take Jacksonville to cover the -4.  Our prediction is that they will probably win by 5 to 6 points in this one. 

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Minnesota at Green Bay - We wanted to jump right to this Monday Night game to point out that Green Bay is 2-7 Straight Up and 5-4 Against the Spread.  Bookmaking is an art form and these records have to at least make some type of sense, otherwise the bookies look as if they are doing a piss poor job of linesmaking. 

The fact that Green Bay opened up at -3 1/2 and climbed to -5 is a good thing.  Green Bay might very well win but if they win and cover the record then becomes 3-7 Straight Up and 6-4 ATS.  The bookmakers are likely counting on Green Bay walking away with a 3-7 Straight Up record this week combined with a 5-5 ATS record, which would start to make sense.

Green Bay incidentally has the edge in just about every aspect of this game. 

Typically, this series does fall within a field goal.  It is after all a rivalry and Minnesota already beat Green Bay by 3 points in a come from behind upset.

Sagarin has Green Bay able to win by 4 and actually rates the Packers as the better team.  Likewise, Sonny Moore has Green Bay by 4 1/2. 

We will take Minnesota +5 as a very strong play regardless of the close call with the team models.  Gambling911.com does anticipate Green Bay winning, but by only 3 points.   

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Miami at Cleveland - When it comes to the warm weather teams playing in cold weather territory, temperature does play an important factor just as it does the first three weeks in warm weather regions like Miami (where we witnessed the toll 90 + temperatures took on the Broncos). 

Cold shouldn't be too much of a factor on Sunday however as temperatures rebound back up into the mid 40's by game time. 

This one opened Cleveland -1 and has jumped to -2 1/2.  Last year's meeting between these two teams, Miami won, and neither team has improved all that dramatically.  That game was played in Miami.

Sagarin does have Cleveland able to win by 3.  Moore has Cleveland by just over 1.  Because the line is at -2 and -2 1/2 across the board, we'll ever so slightly lean towards Miami to win by 3.

New Orleans at New England - Just what the doctor ordered for New England, a struggling Saints team that has lost 5 straight.  Both these teams do have a tendency to play close games keep in mind and New Orleans should be hungry enough for a win to keep this game close we would think. 

New England has been consistent in that they win one weekend and lose the next. 

There hasn't been enough recent head-to-head history here between these two teams.

Sagarin has the Patriots able to win by 14 points.  Moore is not so generous, believing New England can win by 8.  The line opened at -9 1/2 and has jumped all the way to -11 in some books plus you can get it for -9 if you happen to like New England.  We like New Orleans +11.  This is the number at 5Dimes.com, which is much higher than the majority of sportsbooks.   

Oakland at Washington - Washington opened at -5 and has pretty much sat on -6.  There is not enough recent matchup history.  Sagarin has the Redskins able to win by 8.  Sagarin has DC only able to win by 3.  Gambling911 will lean on Oakland, believing this will be a much closer game. 

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Philadelphia at New York Giants - The Giants opened as a reasonable -4 favorite but since that time McNabb announced he would not be starting and the game shot up to Giants -7 1/2.  Most places have this at -7.  Philly has owned this series.  Sagarin has the Giants winning by no more than 6 1/2 (and this rating may have been created prior to McNabb's announcement).  Moore says 8 1/2.  Gambling911 will have to go ever so slightly with Philadelphia covering here.

Tampa at Atlanta - This number has not moved off Atlanta -6.  Tampa's ATS record probably can use some adjusting.  Over the last 6 games, Tampa has pretty much dominated and only lost big one of the six games and that was last year when they were regrouping.  Sagarin has Atlanta able to win by
5 1/2.  Moore says by 4.  We like Tampa Bay to cover here and our prediction is that Atlanta takes this one by 4 or 5 points. 

Arizona at St. Louis - St. Louis opened at -9 1/2 most places and some books now have the line at -9.  Arizona typically plays this series tight no matter if St. Louis dominates - and they do.  Sagarin has St. Louis able to win by 9.  But we believe Moore is more reasonable with its rating model and St. Louis winning by 5, which jives with past head-to-head history, especially with the Cards more eager for a win.

Carolina at Chicago - Carolina opened as a -2 1/2 road favorite.  They continue to hover between -2 1/2 and -3.  There is not enough ample recent head-to-head history unfortunately so we need to review the team ratings models which tell us that Chicago should probably be favored, at least if you believe Sagarin.  Moore, however, believes the Panthers can win this one by 4.  We will be on Carolina to win by 4 but with the -2 1/2 line.   

Detroit at Dallas - It is not likely that Detroit will win here.  Do they go 4-6 Straight Up and 7-3 ATS after this week?  Using the SU vs ATS observance, we are immediately looking strongly at Dallas.  The line opened at Dallas
-7 1/2 and has only moved to -8.  Dallas has dominated the past two head-to-head games.  Sagarin has Dallas able to win by 13.  Sonny Moore has Dallas by 7.  We are going to lean on Dallas -7 1/2 here.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore - The home team usually wins here even though Baltimore is just so awful.  Pittsburgh is the road favorite at -3 1/2.  Sagarin has Pittsburgh able to win by 9 points in Baltimore.  Likewise, Moore has Pittsburgh by 7 1/2.  Looks like we're on Pittsburgh -3 1/2. 

Seattle at San Francisco - This one opened at Seattle -11 1/2 and is currently hovering between -11 1/2 and -13 1/2.  The last two games in this series, Seattle has dominated, including the last game where Seattle won by 15.  San Francisco has scored a total of 15 points over its last two games.  OUCH!  And whereas the Seahawks have score 156 points over their last 5 games, the 49ers have only managed to score 50 points over this same time period. 

If San Francisco were to lose but cover, their ATS record would be 5-5 compared to a Straight Up record of 2-8.  We can't see this happening!

The Sagarin Model only has Seattle able to win by 10 points and Moore has this one set at no more than 11. 

This one is going to hurt but we have to lean on these models this week for San Francisco +13 1/2. 

Buffalo at San Diego - Buffalo is not likely to win on the road since they are yet to win against anybody on the road this season, and we can't see them starting with San Diego.  There would be a significant disparity in the ATS vs SU record for Buffalo should they win but manage to cover and this needs to be addressed.  They would walk away with a 4-6 Straight Up Record and a
6-4 ATS record. 

You can still get San Diego from -10 1/2 to -11.  This one opened at -9 1/2.  There is not enough significant past head-to-head history here.

Let's now review the ratings models which have San Diego winning by 13 1/2 (Sagarin) and 7 (Moore). 

There simply is not enough past evidence to support the idea that San Diego will blow out a team like Buffalo.  They've played games way too close and the ATS vs SU disparity can be fixed over the coming weeks.

We will lean on the Sonny Moore Ratings Model and go with Buffalo +11.  The predicted outcome being San Diego wins by 6 to 7 points. 

New York Jets at Denver - The line here opened at -12 1/2 and has moved to -13 1/2.  There is no significant past head-to-head history to review here since the last meeting between these two was three years ago.  Sagarin has Denver able to beat New York by 19 points.  Moore has Denver able to win by close to 16.  This one is Denver all the way at -13.

Indianapolis at Cincinnati - The game that everybody is looking forward to kicks off at 4:15 pm EST.  Fortunately, most of us will be able to see this game and 60 Minutes immediately follows so we won't miss the much anticipated segment on internet gambling - A MUST SEE after the game.

Indianapolis opened here as a -4 favorite.  You can now get them from -5 1/2 to -6 1/2.  There is no solid past history to review.

We will now look at the Ratings Models whereby Sagarin has the Colts winning by barely a field goal.  And The Moore Team Ratings Model agrees.  And so does Statfox for that matter. 

Yes, the Colts may remain undefeated here but they are not likely to cover so we will take Cincinnati at the best number +6 1/2 even if this seems almost like a sucker bet. 

Kansas City at Houston - Houston is 1-8 Straight Up and 4-5 Against the Spread.  So if they lose again vs. Kansas City, which is quite likely, but they cover, Houston goes 1-9 Straight Up but .500 ATS at 5-5?  This is poor linesmaking, unless of course Houston can pull off a win.

Houston was actually able to beat Kansas City on the road last year so a stunning straight up win is not entirely out of the question.  However, KC beat them by 28 points the year before in Houston. 

Sagarin has Kansas City able to win by 7 1/2.  The line is 6 1/2 to 7.  Moore only has KC able to win by 3 points. 

There is a potential for Houston to win straight up here against a suspect team however.  We will be on Houston +7.

As you can see we are very DOG HEAVY with only 5 favorites among our picks. 

Good luck to all. 

One Star Plays:

Jacksonville -4
Miami +2 1/2
Philadelphia +7 1/2
Carolina -2 1/2
San Francisco +13 1/2
Buffalo +11
Houston +7

Two Star Plays:

Oakland +6

Three Star Plays:

New Orleans +11
Dallas -7 1/2
Pittsburgh -3 1/2
Denver -13

Four Star Plays:

Minnesota +5
Tampa Bay +6
Arizona +9 1/2
Cincinnati +6 1/2

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Gambling911.com Sports Handicapping

Originally published November 18, 2005 12:32 am EST