Last week we here at Gambling911.com did quite well, going 9-4-1.  We hope to repeat on this performance for Week 10 of the NFL.

Watch for additional analyses to be added as we are one of the only web sites to features free picks on ALL games being played during the weekend.

Arizona at Detroit - This line opened Detroit -4 and hasn't moved all that much.  We can see the line fluctuating at most shops between -3 1/2 and -4.  Detroit has owned this series over the last two years with both games at home. 

Now let us review the Team Ratings models.  Sagarin has this on the money at Detroit -4.  The Sonny Moore Model has this one set at just over 4.  All indications are that Detroit should win this won handily.  We are making it a THREE STAR PLAY.

Baltimore at Jacksonville - The line opened here at Jacksonville -7 1/2 and is already down to -6 at a few shops.  Baltimore has dominated this matchup in the past. 

Sagarin, however, has the Jaguars able to win by at least two touchdowns and Sonny Moore has this one at 6.  Therefore, we will go with Baltimore for the small play but with the highest line we can find of +7 1/2.

Houston at Indianapolis - Houston will lose at Indy, no question about it.  We just can't see Houston going 4-5 ATS but let's review further. 

Indianapolis has been dominant over Houston with a few big wins over the present 18 point spread.  Sagarin has The Colts winning by well over 20 points and Sonny Moore has them able to win by more than 20 as well.  That about seals it.  In fact, this is a FOUR STAR PLAY for us. 

Kansas City at Buffalo - KC dominated Buffalo in 2003.  We still don't feel that there is ample historic head-to-head data.  The line ranges now from a -2 to -2 1/2 depending on which book you get it.  Because this one opened at Buffalo -3, the line has moved down with action needed on the Bills.  Sagarin has KC able to win by 6 points.  Sonny Moore has this one pretty even.  It's a good play on Kansas City.    

Minnesota at New York Giants - This one goes from Giants -9 to -11 depending on the sportsbook.  For the most part the lines seem to be hovering around -9 and -9 1/2, falling off the opening -10 line.  This indicates to us that the bookies are trying to get action on the Giants.  In the last three years, the Giants have beaten Minnesota by more than a touch down and that was when they were not so good and Minnesota was a little better perhaps. 

So now with a decisive head-to-head history, we look at the ratings models and hope everything jives.  Sagarin has the potential for a Giants blow out.  Surprisingly, Sonny Moore agrees and has New York winning by two touch downs. 

There are indications that some books are trying desperately to get action on Minnesota.  This is a FOUR STAR PLAY.  There is NOTHING to suggest the Vikings will continue to win consistently, especially two games on the road. 

This game has BLOW OUT written all over it.  Lisa Perry, in case you were wondering, is also on the Giants at -9. 

New England at Miami - New England opened as a -2 1/2 favorite in Miami.  The line has moved up to -3.  The usual recreational sportsbook suspects (i.e. Sports Interaction, BetUS, Bodog, BetGameDay) all have this one at -3 which suggests to us that they are trying to get people to bite with the dog, and that is often an indicator that they have strong faith in the favorite.

New England has been fairly dominant in past head-to-head matchups with Miami except for last year where they probably didn't have much to play for the end of season. 

Sagarin has New England only able to win by 1 so that -2 1/2 is a most interesting line.  Moore has this one set at about New England -2.  We anticipate a close game below the field goal and perhaps even a Miami win.  But a small play here nonetheless. 

San Francisco at Chicago - This could be the game that pushes Chicago over the hump but the Bears winning by THAT MUCH?  Hard to imagine. 

Chicago did beat the 49ers pretty good last year at home.  Let's now look at the team rating models.  Sagarin has the Bears able to win at home against the 49ers by 9.  The line however ranges anywhere from -12 1/2 to -14 1/2.  Sonny Moore says 10 points.  No matter how you cut it, Chicago should not be favored by this much.  We will be on San Francisco for a small play.

Denver at Oakland - The game opened at -3 Denver and has not budged anywhere from that spot.  Denver - as you can plainly see - is a road favorite.  Oakland has been playing better of late, even with the last second loss in Kansas City, a tough place to play.  Sagarin has this on the money at 3 point win for Denver.  So does Sonny Moore.  Past head-to-head matchups indicate a Denver dominance.  It does seem this one will fall on 3, but we will take Denver as a small play with the potential for a push and only slight potential for Denver beating the spread. 

New York Jets at Carolina - We don't see the Jets winning and as such we don't see them going 4-5 against the spread with a 2-7 record straight up.  Likewise, we don't see Carolina winning and walking away with a 7-2 straight up record only to have a 4-5 ATS record showing for it.  Things have a way of coming together and the Straight Up vs ATS records are no exception. 

There have been no recent meetings between these two teams so we are left primarily looking at the team ratings models. 

Not surprisingly, the line here is generous.  Carolina -9.  Sagarin says they can win by 10.  Moore believes that Carolina can win by 12 or more points.  Big play on Carolina.

Green Bay at Atlanta - Green Bay a 4-4 ATS winner.  If they cover this week they go 5-4 ATS with a straight up record of 1-8.  Huh?  We don't see them beating the Falcons.

The line opened at -9 and goes to -9 1/2 for Atlanta pretty much across the board.  Atlanta killed Green Bay in their last regular season matchup in 2003. 

Sagarin has Atlanta winning by 13.  Moore has it at 8.  We gotta go with Atlanta though due to the ATS vs SU disparity on Green Bay's end and to some extent on Atlanta's. 

St. Louis at Seattle - Seattle is playing well with a 6-2 record but St. Louis is still hanging in there at 4-4.  This is a steady Seattle -6 1/2 to -7 across the board. 

Seattle has already beaten St. Louis on the road this year but traditionally St. Louis has owned this series.  That's a strong indication that St. Louis should either win or at least play this one close.

While Sagarin has Seattle by 11, Moore has Seattle able to win by 7 1/2.  Based on these models we're going to throw a small play of Seattle winning by 8 points and a line of -6 1/2.

Washington at Tampa - This should be a good bout.  Both teams are somewhat of surprises coming into the season with strong starts.  Both have 5-3 records.  If Tampa wins, they cover.  It's doubtful we'll be seeing a 6-3 Straight Up record and a 3-6 record against the spread. 

This opened as a Pick with the line going either direction.

Washington has won three of the last four and the most recent game last year, the Redskins won by 6.

Sagarin has Washington by 4.  Moore has Tampa by 1.  A play of Tampa +1 1/2 is in order here. 

Cleveland at Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh should win this one easy.  But by
7 1/2?  We can't see Cleveland losing with a 3-6 record after this game while holding a 5-4 ATS record.  The line is pretty much Pittsburgh -7 1/2 to -8 across the board.  Pittsburgh has dominated in past head-to-head matchups.  Sagarin has Pittsburgh able to win by 14.  Moore is interesting in that they have Pittsburgh covering by 9 points.  Good play here on Pittsburgh even though it seems too good a play. 

Dallas at Philadelphia - Dallas has not played well on the road against Philadelphia and for the most part the Eagles have dominated.  Sagarin has this a Philly win by 2 1/2 points (the line is set at -2 1/2 to -3).  Moore has Dallas by 3.  We will be on Dallas +3.

ONE STAR PLAYS

Miami +3
San Francisco +14 1/2
Denver -3
Seattle -6 1/2

TWO STAR PLAYS

Baltimore +7 1/2
Tampa +1 1/2

THREE STAR PLAYS

Detroit -3 1/2
Kansas City +2 1/2
Dallas +3

FOUR STAR PLAYS

Indianapolis -17
New York Giants -9
Carolina -8 1/2
Atlanta -9
Pittsburgh -7 1/2

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Gambling911.com Sports Handicapping

Originally published November 12, 2005 2:15 pm EST