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08/06/2003
- 2:00 PM ET
Underneath the Radar
The SportsGuru,
www.GuruWins.com
Football Betting
Strategy
In my
humble opinion, this truly is the greatest time of the year. Summer is coming to
a close, kids are getting ready for the school year, baseball is winding down,
and the greatest sport on Earth is getting ready to begin: college and pro
football!
One thing
I have definitely noticed over the years I have been handicapping is how early
in the season, particularly in college, you can find some very advantageous
lines by taking teams with an improving QB. For example, before the season
started I was very high on the Iowa State Cyclones.
You might
be saying to yourself, "The Cyclones? Why were you high on them at the beginning
of last year?" Here's why, two words: Seneca Wallace. He had a solid 2nd half of
the 2001 campaign as he ended the season with 3 straight spread winners and was
primed and ready to have a big 2002.
If you
look back at the beginning of the 2002 campaign, the Cyclones were facing
Florida State, a solid defensive team but lacking somewhat on offense. Iowa
State was 22 point underdogs at Kansas City but knowing that the biggest and
best asset they had could light up a scoreboard, I advised my clients to take
the Cyclones. After the first half of this game, it wasn't looking good but as
expected, Wallace brought the Cyclones back with some amazing plays and only
lost by 7, well under the spread. The Cyclones won their next 5 games against
the spread as well and those who knew about Wallace cashed in. Is there another
similar situation where a QB is primed to have a huge season and help beat the
linesmakers early in the season? Absolutely!
That QB
would be Scott McBrien and the team is the Maryland Terrapins. This situation is
slightly different in that the Terrapins have been winning the last few seasons
whereas in Wallace's case, until he showed up the Cyclones were Big 12 fodder.
The Terrapins are an absolute force to be reckoned with this coming season and
it wouldn't surprise me if they win the ACC. Most magazines though have them
coming in 2nd or 3rd behind Chuck Amato's North Carolina State Wolfpack
but the Terrapins bring back more starters, particularly on defense. The
Terrapins face Northern Illinois their first game of the year and you can
absolutely be guaranteed that coach Ralph Friedgen will have them focused as he
doesn't want to start the season off like last year when they went 1-2.
As for
other teams with improving QB's that I see having a fast start against the
spread include:
Brad
Smith (Missouri) -9 offensive starters return
Josh
Fields (Oklahoma State) -covered last 4 games of 2002
Rod
Rutherford (Pittsburgh) -has 7 other returning offensive starters
Casey
Kelly (New Mexico) -if healthy, could give Lobos quick start they need to pass
Colorado State
Andrew
Walter (Arizona State) -whole offensive line returns, plays in great wide-open
system
I am not
advocating blindly betting on these teams but you should see very favorable
lines on these teams as they are playing in programs that are "Underneath the
Radar" as far as the linesmakers are concerned. Watch how
they perform in the first week of the season and you'll see why I advocate they
will do well against the spread early in the season until the linesmakers start
leaning hard the other way.
I'll be
writing a column every other week during the college and NFL season, if there's
a subject you'd like me to touch on or have a question you'd like to have
answered in this column, feel free to email me at contactus@GuruWins.com. Due to
the volume of emails I may not be able to answer them all here but I will do my
best to email you back if they don't make it into the column.
Until
next time,
The
SportsGuru
http://www.GuruWins.com
Football Betting
Strategy
The Sports Guru offers free and premium picks
at http://www.guruwins.com/. The Sports Guru exclusively endorses
www.MVPsportsbook.com as the #1 place to play his picks.
Daily-Handicapping.com
This will be my 4th year
selling selections over the net. Last year was a breakout year for me hitting
61% NFL 71% NCAA. Monitored by
www.nsmonitor.com I won the ultimatehandicappingchallenge last year for
NCAA football. Verified by this url
www.ultimatehandicappingchallenge.com/standings-ncaaf.php
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