Only twice in Bowl Championship Series history has a team been in position to reach the title game heading into the final weekend of the regular season and played its way out.

The USC Trojans and Texas will try to avoid tripping up at the finish line Saturday, the way UCLA did in 1998 and Tennessee did in 2001.

As of Monday November 28, 2005, odds on the Texas Longhorns beating Colorado had been set at -28 at most online sportsbooks.  The opening line was -27 1/2. 

Early suggestions here based on the nominal line movement suggests that the online sportsbooks believe Colorado can cover here, though at this time the opinion here is not especially strong. 

As of Wednesday, however, BetUS.com has made a serious adjustment to the line, taking it up to -29.  This is indeed the first sign that a recreational online sportsbook has a strong opinion on the favorite winning as they encourage action on the dog.  Most books remained on -28, some had it at the opening line of -27 1/2 while only a handful have taken the line down to
-27.

We were watching for recreational books like BetUS.com and SportsInteraction.com to move the line up to around -29 or higher, which would indicate they are trying to get action on the dog and as such have a strong opinion on the favorite winning.  This is not yet the case with SportsInteraction.com 

By Friday evening, SportsInteraction.com had this one at -28, which is major.  It's not definitive since a number of other books continue to take this line under the opening odds of -27 1/2.  But the team ratings models were very much in agreement that Texas could win by no more than 24 points.  We believe there would likely be a win of 25 points by Texas in this matchup based on the ratings models but that Texas would win by 29 or more based on the line movements.  This one should prove interesting no matter what. 

When the line sits still at these books or moves down, they more than likely have a strong opinion on the dog winning. 

The Sonny Moore Team Ratings model believes that the Texas Longhorns can only win by 21 points.  And Sagarin has Texas able to win by 24 points.  Both these ratings models suggest that the Texas Longhorns line is terribly inflated and that Colorado stands a good chance of winning.  Some of the sportsbooks like BetUS.com appear to be in terrible conflict with the Team Ratings Models.  

The ratings models are not so decisive when it relates to the USC game. 

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Gambling911.com News Wire

Originally published November 29, 2005 12:08 am EST
Updated November 30, 2005 11:17 pm EST
Updated December 2, 2005 10:37 pm EST
Updated December 3, 2005 9:48 am EST