College Football – 2019 Week 7 Wise Guy Picks

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:
Oct/08/2019

Even the best have an off day every now and then and our wise guy picks that we followed from Week 6 of the college football season didn’t all pan out. Still, if you’ve been following the numbers with us you’d be ahead of the game, and that’s all a responsible bettor could ask for. It’s not always easy to figure out where the sharp money is going, especially on the early lines. There are many variables that affect the opening line and wise guys are a part of that scenario. When sharp money hits a book, oddsmakers react. *This article courtesy of Bookmaker.eu


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When you buy a game is just as important as which game you buy. Case in point is the Purdue at Penn State game. The Nittany Lions opened as a 24-point favorite and the line was quickly wagered to -27.5. Backing PSU between those numbers would have been a winner since the Lions won by 28 points. However, the line continued to move and closed at -28.5, which was a losing bet for anyone who waited. It didn’t matter where the line closed for LSU’s tilt with Utah State. The Tigers won by 36 easily covering the spread that rose to -28, and they’ve been good to their backers with a 4-1 ATS record. Nebraska failed to cover in its win over Northwestern slapping wise guys with an ATS loss.

The Week 7 college football schedule offers up some great betting opportunities and we’ll take a look at a few games where sharp money has impacted the line. And remember, BookMaker will have spreads and totals for every FBS matchup during the 2019 season. Visit BookMaker.eu when you’re ready to throw down on your favorite college football team.

College Football Week 7 Wise Guy Picks

Florida at LSU ( -13 ), Saturday, Oct. 12, 8 p.m. ET

These heavyweight matchups tend to get a lot of play and if the numbers are attractive wise guys will jump all over it. That looks like the case for this SEC tilt between unbeatens. LSU opened as a 14-point home favorite and the public jumped all over the Tigers. They’ve been nearly unstoppable leading the nation in scoring while amassing an average of 571 yards per game. That spread offense is a good look in Death Valley.

Despite nearly 70 percent of the public action backing the Tigers on the early line, the spread dropped to LSU -13. Sharps think Florida’s defense is the group that contains Joe Burrow and his quest for the Heisman Trophy. The Gators did just throw a blanket on Auburn and they surrender only 9.5 points per game. Games are always unpredictable, but I’m more skeptical of Florida’s defense than I am of LSU’s offense.

Alabama at Texas AM ( 59.5 ), Saturday, Oct. 12, 3:30 p.m. ET

It’s not just the spread in a college football game that wise guys toy with. They also have a way of moving the needle on the over/under. This SEC tilt opened with a total of 61 and everybody in Tuscaloosa bet on the over since Tua and the Tide can score that many points by just rolling out of bed. What the public fails to realize is that teams like Alabama and some of the others in elite territory pad their numbers against lesser opponents. When facing quality teams the numbers tend to fall back.

The Aggies have talent and they are more athletic than any team the Tide has faced. You can get a 31-27 game and that’s a winner on the under, and that’s what wise guys are banking on. And this is the first true road test for Alabama, which beat Duke at a neutral site and won at South Carolina.

Wyoming at San Diego State ( -3.5 ), Saturday, Oct. 12, 10:30 p.m. ET

If there’s money to be won you can bet wise guys will sniff it out. Get the pun? Proving once again that no line and no game is safe from sharp money this Mountain West tilt has a distinct aroma of wise guy action. Both teams enter at 4-1 and the Aztecs opened as 5-point chalk on the opening college football betting line. That number created a stir among sharps and squares. Three-quarters of the public jumped on SDSU, but wise guys dumped their stash on Wyoming.

Those points were too good to pass up against a team that beat FCS Weber State by just six points in the opener and averages just 20.2 per game. The Aztecs can prevent teams from scoring they just can’t do it on their own. Those five points seemed like 25 when the line hit the board and wise guys pounced, dropping the spread to -3.5.

Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today.

- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com

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