Bowl Games picks

What follows are some important upcoming Bowl Games picks based primarily on team ratings models forecasts and past head-to-head history, not to mention crucial line movements. 

This system has allowed us to enjoy success with our weekly NFL picks and we hope it does the same for these Bowl Game picks as well. 

Champs Sports Bowl Preview

The Buffaloes (7-5) will be without coach Gary Barnett when they take on the 23rd-ranked Tigers (7-4) in the Champs Sports Bowl on Dec. 27 at Orlando, Fla.

Barnett stepped down on Dec. 8 at the request of Colorado athletic director Mike Bohn after a seven-year tenure. The embattled coach accepted a $3 million buyout to leave with one year left on his contract.

The result is an overlay of Colorado -9 1/2 to -10 at some online sportsbooks while the vast majority have the game off the board. 

Colorado replaced Barnett with Boise State's Dan Hawkins, giving him a five-year contract worth $900,000 a year, which includes $50,000 to run the school's summer football camps.

Hawkins plans on coaching Boise State Dec. 28 against Boston College in the MPC Computers Bowl with Colorado defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz leading the Buffaloes in this contest.

Clemson coach Tommy Bowden said the circumstances surrounding Colorado could pose a challenge for his Tigers.

``We will face a team that is rejuvenated, wanting to impress their new coach,'' Bowden said. ``That happens quite a bit when a new coach is hired for a bowl game.

``Just look at Clemson's bowl history. Twice when Clemson has changed coaches prior to a bowl (1978 and 1993), it won the bowl game. The one time the opposition changed coaches for a bowl game against Clemson (Minnesota in the 1985 Independence Bowl), the opposition won.''

This makes the fact that there is a rather significant overlay here all the more interesting.

Two of our primary team ratings models have Clemson able to win by 4 and 5 points, respectively.

The Colorado Buffaloes are live dogs in this one.  Colorado +10

This number was available at press time at Sports Interaction.  Click on this banner below to grab Clemson at +10 before the line goes down.
 sportsinteraction.com

 

Peach Bowl Preview

Let us take this opportunity to welcome our newest sponsor, Canbet.com (go to their web site here) now offering a 20% signup deposit to all new members (mention bonus code gambling911). 

Canbet was also one of the only online sportsbooks offering odds at press time on the Peach Bowl, and they had this one at a PK.  The line has since moved to Miami -7.

The Peach Bowl features two top 10 teams for the first time in its history as the ninth-ranked Hurricanes face the No. 10 Tigers at the Georgia Dome on Dec. 30.

LSU, led by first-year coach Les Miles, had a nine-game winning streak end with the loss to Georgia.

``We're looking forward to taking the field again,'' Miles said. ``We have a great group of seniors on this team, and we're fortunate to be playing in a bowl game that features a quality opponent in Miami.''

LSU lost starting quarterback JeMarcus Russell in the SEC title game with an injured left shoulder. His status for the Peach Bowl is uncertain.

``I don't know to what extent it will keep him out,'' Miles said. ``It's certainly something we are concerned about.''

This is one of the reasons why books did not offer a line prior headin into Christmas.  Another reason had to do with the Hurricanes being paper thin at wide receiver.

The Sagarin Ratings Model has Miami able to win by 2 points in this game.  The Sonny Moore Ratings model figures a 5 point win by Miami and the Mike Greenfield Ratings Model has Miami able to win this one by nearly 5 as well. These models do not take into account variables such as injury and other concerns that might otherwise cause oddsmakers to otherwise re-evaluate the lines.

We are on Miami as a PK and caution readers that the -7 line may be pushing things a bit, although injuries are factored into the line and oddsmakers generally will not switch sides as a result. 

Canbet was also one of the few books offering a total here at 42.  Interestingly enough the line has only moved down to 41. Click on the banner below to join Canbet now.

Gambling911.com Sports Handicapping Service

Originally published December 22, 2005 11:52 pm EST
Revised December 25, 2005 4:32 pm EST

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