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Betting the NFC South in 2020

Written by:

C Costigan

Published on:

Apr/15/2020

For the last division preview, we have the NFC South which might prove to be the best division in the NFC this season if Atlanta can get it together. The addition of Tom Brady in Tampa Bay and the retention of Drew Brees in New Orleans along with Matt Ryan in Atlanta give this division arguably the best trio of quarterbacks in the entire league. Given the changes in Carolina we don’t really know what to expect but Teddy Bridgewater is still very good.

History would suggest...

The NFC South has been one of the most competitive divisions in football since its inception in 2002. Each team has won the division at least three times and each team has been to at least one Super Bowl with New Orleans and Tampa Bay actually having won one. The Saints have won the division each of the last three seasons with Atlanta and Carolina having won it multiple times in the last ten seasons. Given the odds the bookmakers have come up with, they, along with myself, expect another very competitive season in 2020.

The Favorite

The New Orleans Saints opened the offseason as the division favorite and after a few weeks are still in the catbird seat. The Saints opened at (-155) and currently sit at (-135) on Bovada and (-125) on BetOnline. Game Time Bets has the best number at (-115).

The Saints welcome back future hall of fame quarterback Drew Brees after signing him to a two year deal in the offseason. Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara are back as well giving head coach Sean Payton his main offensive weapons again this season to run it back. Assuming Brees is his typical self and Kamara can stay healthy, this seems like the logical choice to win the division.

The Value Plays

Both Atlanta and Tampa Bay opened to nice money-making numbers but the odds have changed quite a bit for both during the offseason. Tampa Bay opened at (+500), but their successful offseason has them currently sitting at (+200), which is still a solid value given their additions and retentions. Tom Brady replacing Jameis Winston under center while the Bucs kept their main defensive cogs is a huge win for this small window that Tampa is trying to take advantage of.

Atlanta opened at (+300) but as since fallen (or improved depending on your point of view) to (+600). The loss of Vic Beasley will be difficult given the Falcons already flawed defense while the addition of Todd Gurley to an already high ceiling offense could be a game-changer. The loss of Austin Hooper will hurt but the addition of Hayden Hurst should ease that pain.

No thanks, I’m driving

Carolina falls into this spot for a single reason. Matt Rhule. That is not to say that Rhule is a bad coach, he did wonderful things at Baylor but if you think I am about to put money on a college coach making his NFL debut in a division with Bruce Arians and Sean Payton, you’re outside of your mind. I do like the addition of Bridgewater and Christian McCaffrey is obviously a star but there is going to be an adjustment period and I really don’t know what to expect from Carolina this season.

My Pick

The Saints are the obvious choice here, they have a great quarterback, they are good on both sides of the ball and if they are able to remain healthy, they should win the league. I am going to sprinkle a little bit on the Buccaneers because with this roster and this coach, they will be fun to root for. When making a NFC South pick - head to RealBookies; our top pay per head bookie site.

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