Academy Awards Best Supporting Actress Odds: Best Variety in Betting

This year's Academy Awards features a tight race among the "Best Supporting Actress" nominees with any three potentially being categorized as favorites among the oddsmakers.  This is by far the best category for anyone looking for value.

The technical favorite we suppose is Cate Blanchett.  She's listed with even odds, bordering ever so slightly on -110.  This means that in order to win $1, you would have to bet $1.10 and if the bet is a winner, you get that initial $1.10 back along with your $1 profit.  For argument sake you are pretty much wagering $1 to win $1 since Blanchard will probably have odds that move back and forth.  Her odds were courtesy of BetUS.com

David Dylan Thomas of BlogsCritics explains why this category is so tight in 2008:

"On the surface, it looks like Amy Ryan should be a no-brainer. Eighteen critics circle wins, including a BFCA. But wait, who got the Golden Globe? Cate Blanchett, along with 6 other wins. And she's playing a dude! That's Oscar gold! But wait a minute? Who won BAFTA? Tilda Swinton, as a part of her five wins.

"All this would be enough without Ruby Dee throwing off the curve completely by winning SAG, indicating the will of the largest voting block of the Academy, who has only disagreed with SAG three of the last 10 times in this category. Not to mention she represents the "career award" this year (and, by proxy, her late husband's career)."

Cate Blanchett - Ms. Blanchett already has an Oscar under her belt for The Aviator.  Is she due for another one?  Well, her odds of getting an award this year are stronger than most since she's nominated in two categories (she's up for a "Best Actress" award for her role in Elizabeth: the Golden Age).  She's got her best shot at winning the "Best Supporting Actress" nod since she's listed with +2500 odds in the "Best Actress" category.

Cate Blanchett plays Jude Quinn in I'm Not There.  Quinn represents a version of singer Bob Dylan at the height of his fame in the 1960s, when his original fan base was rejecting him as a sell-out.

Amy Ryan - She's only a +200 dog in this category.  Ms. Ryan plays the drug-addicted mother of an abducted daughter in Gone Baby Gone. 

Thomas writes of Ryan:

"I believe "Cryin' Ryan's" momentum will overpower her contenders. But just barely. Blanchett already has her supporting gold from The Aviator, Swinton is not what people remember about Clayton and Dee will probably end up being the fourth time in 11 years the Academy has gone another way (but I consider her the greatest spoiler, not Blanchett).

"Of course, it would be awesome if Saoirse Ryan upset them all.

"As far as "should," Ryan gives a pivotal performance in Gone Baby Gone. If she doesn't work, the film doesn't work. And the film works spectacularly."

HBO's critically acclaimed series "The Wire" may be widely overlooked come Emmys time, but we're happy to see that one of its performers is getting recognized on the big screen.  Ryan featured prominently in the second season of HBO's The Wire, playing Port Authority Officer Beadie Russell.

Ruby Dee - She is right in the thick of things with her odds not even a point off from Ryans at +270 (would pay out $2.70 for every $1.00 bet if she were to win).  In baseball, Ruby Dee would be a home run bet since +270 is a mighty hefty money line, and since she has a legitimate shot....this is by far one of the better "value" bets out there for the 80th Annual Academy Awards. 

Dee would be one of Oscar's most remarkable winning stories.

She is nominated for an Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress for her performance in “American Gangster,” where she had two lines (no, not blue magic). This is Dee’s first Oscar nomination. It’s also significant because this is the shortest performance (at approximately five minutes) ever to be nominated for an acting Oscar, according to Robb Garvey Thompson of Blackline

Apparently, at 83, she is the second oldest nominee for Best Supporting Actress, behind Gloria Stuart who was 87 for her role in Titanic.

Thompson explains the significance of Dee's career:

"Dee, a Harlem native, had her career kicked off in the 1950 film “The Jackie Robinson Story,” after a series of Broadway performances. Her career in acting has crossed all major forms of media over a span of eight decades, but her most notable performance was in “A Raisin in the Sun,” where she was universally praised by movie critics.

"However, no matter how great her performances have been in over 50 films, since 1939 (wow, I have to check Wikipedia to see if she is still alive) she has never received an Oscar. This story sounds all to familiar in Hollywood."

The longtime civil-rights activist and stage and screen actress' small role in Ridley Scott's "American Gangster," as the mother of ruthless Harlem drug kingpin Frank Lucas, could have been fairly insignificant. But Dee added fire to the character, giving Mama Lucas strength and poignancy. It earned Dee her first Oscar nod.

Mama Lucas is the dirt-poor mother of a large brood who initially turns a blind eye to the source of eldest son Frank's ( Denzel Washington) success. When Mama finally realizes her son is a monster, she gives him a hard slap in the face. It is a pivotal moment.

The other two nominees are Tilda Swinton at +650 odds for her role as Karen Crowder in Michael Clayton.  It wouldn't be too far of a reach to say she could win.

At +1200 odds for a $1200 payout on a $100 bet, Saoirse Ronan, would be more of a reach.  The Irish-born actress was nominated for her role in Atonement.

Along with The U.S. Presidential elections and American Idol, The Oscars is among the most bet on nonsporting events in history with this year's ceremony expected to rake in several millions of dollars. 

Academy Awards Betting Odds Can Be Found Here

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Christopher Costigan, Gambling911.com Publisher CCostigan@CostiganMedia.com

Originally published February 21, 2008 11:55 pm EST
 

 

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