2019 NFC Championship Game Picks – Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints
Who Dat? Nation is ready to rage on Bourbon Street, again. The New Orleans Saints sent the hometown fans to the quarter ecstatic after winning their Divisional Round game against the Eagles, guaranteeing there will be a new champion in the NFL.
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And the Saints are the favorite to claim the Lombardi Trophy. There is one obstacle in the way of their trip to Atlanta and that’s the Los Angeles Rams, who enjoyed playoff success for the first time since the 2004 season by knocking off the Cowboys last week. It’s only fitting that the two best teams battle it out for the right to represent the NFC in Super Bowl LIII.
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints
Date and Time: Sunday, January 20, 2019, 3:05 p.m. ET
Location: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Opening NFL Odds: Saints -3.5, O/U 57
Rams at Saints TV Coverage: FOX
Live Betting Odds Analysis
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Both teams finished the regular season with 13 victories, but it’s the Saints who get to host the NFC Championship by virtue of their regular season win over the Rams in Week 9. That came during a season-changing 10-game win streak that allowed them to runaway with the division title and earn home field advantage.
And for the Saints, playing in the Superdome is a plus. Not counting the final regular season game when Brees and several other starters didn’t play, the Saints went 6-1 at home with an average of 37 points per game. And they fed off the raucous crowd last week, overcoming an early deficit to subdue the defending champs and suck the magic out of Nick Foles. The way the Saints had played on the road at the end of the season, they may not have been able to comeback from a sluggish start.
LA is in unfamiliar territory playing as an underdog for the first time this season. The line opened at Rams +3.5 and under Sean McVay they’ve been a dog just four times with a 2-2 SU and ATS record in those games. Six times during the regular year the Rams were favored by double-digits and they covered four of those games. They finished 6-2 SU and 4-4 ATS on the road, the same records as the Saints had inside the dome.
Last Meeting
Both teams had epic runs during the contest and it ended up being one of the better matchups of the regular season. However, it was the Saints who had the final run to pull away for a 45-35 win in Week 9, ending the Rams undefeated start. Now the Rams have a chance to redeem that setback with a Super Bowl berth on the line. The teams were predicted Super Bowl contenders at the start of the season and were on a collision course to meet for the NFC title.
The teams traded touchdowns at the outset before the Saints rattled off 21 unanswered points with the help of a turnover on downs, missed field goal and interception. The Rams closed the gap with a field right before halftime then scored the first 18 points of the second half for their own 21-point run. Jared Goff’s touchdown pass and 2-point conversion tied the game early in the fourth quarter.
Stopping the momentum, the Saints got a go-ahead field goal and Brees teamed with Michael Thomas on a 72-yard pass play with four minutes left for the final margin. The game was everything fans expected. We saw a few defensive plays, but it was offense that ruled this day, and the Saints had just a little more with Brees throwing four scoring passes and Alvin Kamara tallying a pair on the ground. A season-long bugaboo, the Rams converted 3 of 5 red zone trips into touchdowns while the Saints were successful on all five of theirs.
Key Stat
The Saints haven’t had a lot of postseason success in their history, but they can thank Sean Payton for what they’ve enjoyed. It took them 21 seasons to play their first playoff game and another 13 seasons after that to get their first win. Payton has more playoff wins as coach ( 8 ) than the number of games the team played prior to his arrival ( 6 ).
Payton and the Saints have been perfect at home during the postseason, winning for the sixth time in as many games with last week’s decision over the Eagles. The Saints played as the favorite in all six games and are just 2-4 ATS failing to cover in the last two.
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Betting Los Angeles at New Orleans at BookMaker.eu
The entire discussion this season has been about offense, and why not with both teams averaging over 31 points per game. But we’ve seen the defense pick up on both sides and that has me leaning toward the under on the first half and final betting lines at BookMaker.eu. This should be a tight game and I’m conflicted about picking a winner, but the Saints are home and that’s worth enough points to cover the line.
NFC Championship ATS Betting Pick: New Orleans -3.5 at BookMaker.eu
NFC Championship Score Prediction: Saints 27, Rams 21
