2008 Fiesta Bowl Free Pick

Carrie Stroup here with a free pick after going 1-1 on New Year's Day.  We had a win with Michigan - the big upset play of the day - and now I'm here to bring you my 2008 Fiesta Bowl free pick with an explanation as to why I like this game.

As with the NFL and regular College Football season, we look at how much betting action is on a particular side; if the game is getting significant action to make or break the book if there is heavy lopsided action on one side; then we examine closely any line movements.  If the bookie hasn't moved the line more than a half point even with the two aforementioned factors in place, we then have ourselves a solid bookie opinion on the game.

In this case we are talking about a Fiesta Bowl that has been the 2nd most bet on game in terms of early action, the line hasn't moved more than a half point at Sportsbook.com, where it sits at -7, and the amount of action on Oklahoma at press time January 1 (10:40 pm EST) was 91% going towards Oklahoma.

Sometimes you just gotta get in the bookie's head.  They obviously feel so strongly about this game and West Virginia covering the +7 spread that they are willing to have all the money go to one side (Oklahoma).  And more importantly, it appears as if they are putting all their eggs in one basket looking to make up for the New Year's Day losses.  Missouri, Tennessee and USC covering were pretty bad for the books.  The Sugar Bowl received relatively even action. 

We don't look at stats or any of those details to get in the way of our consistent strategy....it's all based on the bookie opinions since we know that the house wins more than half the time. 

For those of you not familiar with our free picks, we were on fire the first half of both the College and NFL season before hitting a road block for a few weeks thereafter.  Gambling911.com Management even sent me to the dog house.  But those picks were a reflection of the bookies and how they were influencing action on one side verses the other.

This game has all the earmarks of a West Virginia win due to the fact that more than 90% of the action was on the Sooners and there was only a half point move, not to mention we already know that betting on the 2008 Fiesta Bowl has been heavy.

Our pick: West Virginia +7  And bet it at my favorite online sportsbook, Sportsbook.com and be sure to tell them that Carrie Stroup sent you to claim your FREE CASH BONUS.