Expert sports
handicapper Tony George offers us his 2007 NFL
preseason betting tips and strategies.
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Do not let football fever set in too early folks.
While numerous handicappers and scamdicappers will
be throwing out plays and pick for sale like mad
men, capturing the fever of football betting, I
again use caution. Football is the KING of all
sports wagering, I have a few takes about my theory
for the NFL preseason which has worked well over my
past 16 years in the professional handicapping
business. You are strongly advised to read this
article, your wallet will thank you later.
Important 2007
NFL Preseason Tip - Never Unload with Multi-Unit
Plays
I have never unloaded in the preseason in terms of
multi-unit plays, or huge 5 packs of games. It
simply is too risky and my "less is more" approach
is in effect,. You can play Russian roulette with a
bankroll if you are not prepared. There IS
opportunity to turn some dollars in the preseason,
but having EXPERIENCE dealing with it is crucial.
There is no doubt I have made money in the
preseason, 68% or better each of the past 3
preseasons, but my plays are limited and well
thought out for the sports investor. The real money
is made in the regular season and what remains of
baseball right now. That being said, I offer this
up.
Being on a large local sports talk radio show on an
ESPN affiliate in Lincoln Nebraska for 6 years
before moving to Kansas City this past winter,
afforded me great flexibility in connections with
beat sports writers all over the country. We had
many of them on the show over the years, I even had
Beno Cook on my own handicapping show a few years
ago. There is not a week that goes by that I do not
call a few of them to see what is going on in camp,
or practice, in terms of attitude, some insights of
their own, and possibly an injury or two where a
player is slowed down, but not sitting out.
There is also not a Christmas that goes by that
these guys do not get a case of Omaha Steaks from me
either! Knowing what the coaches takes are heading
into a preseason game is crucial. Some will want to
win, or stress passing more than the previous week,
or are angered at team effort the week before and
intend to play starters longer in week 2 or 3. These
contacts supply me with more than you ready at pro
football weekly. Even reading local papers on-line
is a good source of info that offers up more than
some on-line outlet with QB rotations for the game.
It takes time, but when it makes you money, I say it
is worth it.
Another Key
2007 NFL Preseason Tip - Consider Debth of
Quarterbacks
Depth at quarterback is CRUCIAL. Star QB's do not
play that long in the pre-season, EVER! Would you
risk as either a head coach or an owner, Peyton
Manning's season while playing at home against
Houston in the preseason for more than 2 or 3
series? The entire future of your franchise rests on
his health the entire season. Look deep into the
roster of all teams playing, even if they are bad
teams. Bad teams often have veteran backups with a
ton of NFL snaps under their belt. Look at the
Eagles last year, they had 4 QB's that had started
NFL games on their roster in the preseason. That
gave them an edge over anyone they are playing. Look
at the roster sheets guys and planned QB rotations,
it helps you cover spreads.
Forget Overlays When Betting Preseason NFL
If you are adding in the 2 or 3 point factor for
home teams in your power ratings when looking for
overlays against the spread in the preseason, do not
do it. It is not that important in the preseason. As
a matter of fact I came across an interesting tidbit
on-line the other day to prove this. Visiting teams in
week 4 of the preseason are 32-15-1 ATS the past 3
seasons, and last year they were 10-5-1 ATS. Pretty
telling story if you ask me. Week 3 is the most
teams dress rehearsal, so you can count on 2 or 3
quarters from the starters that week, and judge the
outcome better than in weeks 1 and 2.
Quarterback "Battles" Play Roll in 2007 NFL
Preseason Betting
Teams with starting QB battles on their hands often
provide opportunity, and with Brady Quinn still out
for Cleveland, they have 2 guys going at the #1 spot
and both will have their A-game at all times.
Interesting to note that in 2 years at the Browns,
head coach Romeo Crennel is 7-1 ATS in the
preseason. Same situation in Kansas City with Trent
Green gone, the QB position is not solidified, and
Herm Edwards likes to win in the preseason as well.
Interesting starting point for handicapping these
two teams for instance. You start there and then
really look at what is going on in camp, but 2 teams
to watch out for the preseason for sure with the
existing scenarios that surround them.
Starting out the season with 5 or 6 plays on a
Saturday or Sunday in the preseason of the NFL is
risky. I put out 11 games all last preseason, and
won 8 of them. Not a high amount of games but a very
good winning percentage by doing my homework and
being selective on what information I move on when
you get a decent line. Food for thought in the
preseason from a guy who has been doing this for 16
years.
