2006 Football betting tips

2006 football betting tips are provided by Sports911.com to help you with all your sports betting needs.  For the ideal place to bet football online with -104 reduced juice in the NFL (bet $104 to win $100 instead of your typical $110 to win $100 on favorites), be sure to check out Pinnacle Sports (see website here)

November 13, 2006

The Chicago Bears beat up on the New York Giants Sunday night but continue a perilous road trip that includes another game at the Meadowlands verses the team that beat New England Sunday - The New York Jets - and then onto New England. 

The good news is you can get the Bears with what Pinnacle Sports (see website here) deems an "alternative high" or "alternative low" line

In the NFL, Pinnacle Sports offers betting on four different sets of alternate lines: alternate low, alternate high, extra low and extra high. These lines use spreads far removed from the normal line that you cannot reach via the unique drop-down buy/sell menu at Pinnacle Sports Book. For example, if the line for Chicago was -2 ½ (-115), Pinnacle might also offer the Bears at -7.5 (+230), +3.5 (-230), -10.5 (+320) and +7.5 (-385).

While you can handicap and play alternate lines just like a normal line, there are a few situations when they may be vastly superior to the standard spread. There are two factors that make getting extra points by paying more juice advantageous: (1) when the team you are backing is very consistent, or (2) when the game total is low.

The Bears had been a very consistent team early on and for the most part, they have been one of the most consistent teams in the league minus last week's debacle at home against the Dolphins and that road game in Arizona where they just barely squeaked by with a win.  The San Diego Chargers might be considered one of the most consistent teams in the league currently.  Teams that have performed well against the spread should be reviewed.

Pinnacle Sports also points out these two scenarios:

(1) If you have a match-up between two defensive teams that run the ball (like San Diego, Dallas or Jacksonville), the game is more likely to land near the spread, making those extra points you bought more valuable than in a regular game.

(2) When should you play the long shot, giving up more points for a high-paying moneyline? Look for games with high totals, or a match-up between two teams that play inconsistently – especially pass-oriented offenses. In match-ups of teams like Miami, Arizona and Pittsburgh, they’re as likely to win or lose by a high margin in a mismatch. Giving up extra points for a higher payout is a good way to cash in on the volatility of inconsistent teams.

Rich pickings can also be found betting the smaller leagues offered at Pinnacle Sports Betting. With over 120 Div-IAA sides, the linesmakers at Pinnacle Sports simply don’t have the time to analyze each game and team in-depth. Shrewd handicappers focus on a favorite conference like the Ivy League, which gives them an advantage over the house. If you’re a specialist in one conference and know the players, coaches, playing styles, injuries and suspensions for all the teams in that conference, you have invaluable insight on match-ups featuring those teams that bookmakers like Pinnacle Sports, simply do not.

Here is an example of the Pinnacle Sports drop down menu bet offerings for the NFL:

Football
NFL
NFL Team Totals
NFL Live
NFL 1st Halfs
NFL Quarters
NFL Alternate High
NFL Alternate Low
NFL Alternate Extra High
NFL Alternate Extra Low
Fantasy Football
NFL Europe

October 27, 2006

Sports Betting: Identifying Recurring ‘Steam Plays’ & Turning Them to Your Advantage


An alarming pattern has started this year in college football. Every Thursday afternoon (around 1 p.m. EST), there’s been a flurry of action on a limited number of games. The enormous amounts of money pouring in during this “witching hour” are causing massive line movements – in some cases, we’re seeing a 4-point move in less than 10 minutes. Some say this is the handiwork of handicapper Dr. Bob. Others blame it on syndicate action from Taiwan, China or Israel. Regardless of the source, these line movements are bad news for sportsbooks.

When we take one-sided bets on a football game at Pinnacle Sportsbetting, we adjust the moneyline price to encourage or discourage action. The price is like a control-valve on a dam, controlling how fast the money flows on a given game. If the market price on a game is “Ohio State -14 (-110)”, we have two ways to slow down bets on the Buckeyes. We can offer Ohio State at -14 (-111), which is what we call a “stopper” – no one wants to pay this price if a better one is easy to find. We can also adjust the spread off the market price to -14.5 (-105), but the danger whenever you adjust a spread though is that you risk getting sided or middled. Under normal situations, either of these techniques will help control our position.

The problem with these Thursday morning steam-plays arises from how fast a book can get slammed with bets. Price adjustments and even minor spread adjustments do not slow these bettors. If a sportsbook takes many limit bets in a 20-second window, it’s stuck with a very bad position after a 4-point line movement. Each time this happens, an oddsmaker might expect to lose $0.15 for every dollar bet in that time frame (from middles and the cost of offering a good price on the other side). A high-volume shop like Pinnacle Sportsbook can trade its way out of a bad position, but lower volume books can be decimated by this.

Article continues below....

Most steam plays tend to be long-term winning plays (as long as you get the pre-move price), and these Thursday plays are no exception. Many players are starting to watch for steam plays Thursday morning, and blindly bet them at slower-moving sportsbooks. This “echo” makes the initial surge even more terrifying for some line managers.

Regular players can make money off these line moves by simply watching the odds screen Thursday mornings. When you see the lines begin to move, bet at smaller books – especially those that offer first-half lines. These types of derivative lines often move slower than game lines. This gives patient players the option to middle the first half once the lines stabilize. If you manage to play a side before a steam-move of at least two points, you can usually scalp the new number at Pinnacle Sports Betting using point-selling and our 10-cent line on college football which offers up to 50% better value than other sports books.

Understanding ‘Luck’ and Making It Work For You when betting on the NFL


Two Sundays ago, during the end of the Dallas-Philadelphia game, the Cowboys were down 31-24 and driving into Eagle territory with about 30 seconds on the clock. Though Dallas were long shots to score a TD and tie things up, those “wise guys” sitting on the teaser of Dallas +1.5 up to +7.5 were already counting their winnings.

With Dallas out of timeouts, a few more incomplete passes, a touchdown, or even getting tackled in bounds would end the game and give many of these players a chance to cash at the window with a smile on their face… Then the unthinkable happened!!! A Dallas pass in the end zone was intercepted and returned 102 yards for a Philadelphia touchdown. Whether you call this a highly improbable occurrence, or just plain bad luck, either way all those Dallas teasers bit the dust and those wise guys lost out.

Read more of "Understanding "Luck" and making it work for you when betting on the NFL" here

October 11, 2006

Turning fantasy football into real cash

Fantasy sports have become an extremely popular pastime with tens of
millions of sports fans around the world. During football season, fantasy
owners spend hours each week examining player statistics, evaluating their
fantasy football teams and contemplating trades. Team owners hold
extensive negotiations over even the smallest transactions in hopes that
the hard work will payoff come game day. Once Sunday’s NFL games kickoff,
fantasy players turn their focus to statistics in the day’s games, hoping
to dominate their respective leagues.

What could be better than seeing your Fantasy Team crushing a hapless
opponent? Winning your fantasy game AND making money! Pinnacle Sportsbook
is now taking bets on YOUR fantasy games, so that it can become a reality!
As always, Pinnacle Sportsbetting is even offering reduced juice with -108
pricing on YOUR Fantasy League match-ups.

Read more of "Turning fantasy football into real cash" here

October 7, 2006

Handicapping the Handicappers – A Guide to Forum Opinion


All bettors want the quick, easy win, but any long-term success can be attributed to only one thing — hours of research and study. This poses a problem for weekend warriors who don’t have the time to dedicate 40+ hours per week analyzing lines and shopping for value. A potential solution to this predicament for recreational bettors, that offers a realistic chance for finding winners without quitting their day jobs, can be found at online sports betting forums.

One of the quickest ways to learn, without the time-consuming study, is to watch and converse with proven winning handicappers in these gambling discussion areas. There are many talented sports bettors who freely give away plays and encourage discussion on open forums. But how do you know when a handicapper has a long enough track record to justify following their plays?

Read more on "Handicapping the handicappers - A guide to forum opinion" here
 

August 30, 2006

2006 NFL: Betting on over/under totals

Totals -The Quiet Way to Beat Pro Football: While betting 2006 NFL sides will be the most popular form of sports betting another way to bet the 2006 NFL is with the over/under or totals that are posted on the betting boards.

You will find that the more sophisticated pro football bettors, also known as “sharps” will, in fact, focus on totals and play them for more money than sides. There is a lot more intelligent money bet on pro football totals than there is on sides, unless of course there is a snow or rain game and then the masses of asses all jump in betting the under with a lot of ignorant money, forgetting the oddsmakers watch the weather channel too and adjust their numbers accordingly.

Just as is the case with sides, the oddsmakers will set traps with the over/under numbers on the betting boards. When teams such as the Baltimore Ravens play another low scoring opponent, the oddsmakers will often post a number so low that they appear to be begging the public to take the over. And that is just it, they are begging for over bettors because the game is STILL likely to go under the total, even if it is a very low number.

2006 NFL Betting on Over/Under Totals here ---->

The opposite holds true for a matchup of high octane scoring machines. The oddsmakers will post an extremely high number in the attempt to terrorize gamblers into taking the over, with the game clearing the high number with ease anyway.

One thing to really pay attention to when considering 2006 NFL betting on over/under totals are injuries and weather reports, as that is what the general public pays a lot of attention to when they mess with over/unders. If a key quarterback is injured they will often overreact and be the under without fully considering the many other factors that one must take into account when analyzing a potential over/under wager. The same holds true for weather. The masses of asses will jump in and play the under over and over again with weather that features cold, snow, or rain. Many times, games played in these elements go over the total if for no other reason that the oddsmakers will adjust their numbers in anticipation of all of the ignorant money that is going to come in, making for a nice “underlay” so to speak for sharps to oppose.

While NFL betting on over/under totals are increasing in popularity with the general gambling public they are still not nearly as popular as sides. Monday Night and the other featured TV games attract the most over/under action.