American Idol predictions

Making predictions on the outcome of American Idol is going to be tough.  He's a grey haired soul singer from Alabama, she's a sexy classically trained singer from California and both are competing Tuesday night to be named the next American Idol. 

If historical trends are any indicator, this Idol's representing the Southeastern United States tend to fare rather well in the competition, but then again so do females, who comprise three of the past four American Idol winners.

With that said, Katharine McPhee remained a +180 underdog to become the next American Idol.  For every $1.00 bet, McPhee would pay $1.80.  Likewise, for every $100 bet, McPhee would pay $180 at Nine.com (See Web Site Here)

Taylor Hicks, meanwhile, was listed as the -220 favorite.  You would have to bet $2.20 to win $1.00. 

The unusually pretty Katharine McPhee and the pretty unusual Taylor Hicks will perform three songs each for about 30 million viewers when Fox's American Idol, the nation's No. 1 show, moves to Hollywood's Kodak Theatre for the finale at 8 p.m. (live ET/tape-delayed PT). Viewer votes will determine a winner on Wednesday.

Against the gravitational laws of television, Idol's audience rose a remarkable 14% in its fifth season and became a bigger phenomenon, spawning saturation media coverage and online frenzy.

The season's biggest lure, besides the traditional serving of bitters from Cowell, was the final 12's deep talent pool. With no shoo-in this year, Katharine and Taylor are — to borrow from another TV competition — survivors.

Visually, it's Gray vs. Anatomy, writes Bill Keveney and Edna Gundersen of USA Today, with the more-salt-than-pepper Taylor, an anomaly in this youth-skewed competition, facing voluptuous Katharine.

USA Today offered a number of assessments from several prominent music industry experts.

Their post-Idol careers begin tonight, when each performs a new tailor-made song to be released soon as singles. Iain Pirie, the Idol executive who oversees the selection of those tunes, says producers will take different approaches in helping them record.


"Taylor has a soulful, rootsy background. We're looking forward to making a great record that embraces all (his) influences," Pirie says. "Katharine has a broader style. There are so many different avenues to explore. ... We're going to enjoy focusing in on what the character of her record should be."


Pirie's observations were supported by fans waiting to see the singers outside the Idol set more than an hour after last Wednesday's show. Some had attended a taping of another TV show just to get on the studio lot.


"We need more music like Taylor's. It's time for blues and soul. A change is coming," says Nancy Lynch, 53, of Winchester, Calif., part of a Soul Patrol group.


Sarah Slain and Taylor Seebold, 10-year-old girls who flew from San Francisco with their mothers, explained Katharine's appeal. "She looks happy when she's singing. She has a really good voice, and she's really pretty," Seebold says.


Not surprisingly, the music experts offered tougher assessments.


"Taylor is not the quintessential American Idol, but he has a uniqueness that makes him stand out," says Nancy Rainford, former agent and manager and author of How to Agent Your Agent. "He's an odd choice. He'll never be a Mick Jagger, but he could have longevity along the lines of Joe Cocker if he makes the right choices and gets the right producers. If someone tries to make him go Hollywood, the audience is going to hate him. He needs to keep it real and down-home and funky. He can be a little goofy, but that will subside."


Rainford envisions Katharine in touring productions of Beauty and the Beast or Peter Pan.


"If they were still stunt-casting Grease on Broadway, she'd be perfect. She's pure musical theater," she says. "I don't think she has any grasp on what her talent is. She keeps singing these bluesy, sexy songs, and they don't ring true. She wants to be Mariah Carey, and she's never going to be."


Although Katharine doesn't have the pipes, she has the packaging, music consultant Tom Vickers says.


"She's absolutely stunning, and that's the most obvious marketing aspect in moving her forward," he says. "When you have a woman graced with that much natural beauty, you obviously take advantage of it in promoting her. She needs to find songs that she doesn't merely sing but also feels. She's got a lovely voice, but there's an emotional disconnect. I'd look for material that resonates with her, and use that face to sell it."


Taylor may be a harder sell, Vickers says. "He's not a matinee idol, and he's overweight. For someone constantly waving his fist and yelling 'Soul patrol,' he can't dance to save his life. But his fans love his quirky charm. Marketing him is a tightrope walk. I'd be careful not to straitjacket him as a retro-soul artist. He can't follow Michael McDonald and do a Motown tribute. He needs to establish himself first rather than risk pigeonholing himself with a covers album."


Vickers gives Taylor a better shot at lasting fame than Kat, though his challenge lies in building an audience without a hit single as a catalyst. "If he makes a cohesive album with a compelling vibe, it could be the one people have to have."


Music consultant Dennis O'Donnell likens Taylor to a modern-day Kenny Rogers. "Taylor could be a pop-country guy, and that's not a bad thing," he says. "It's right down the middle. If he gets a hit, it will stay around awhile. Though he's awkward and sort of oafish, he has charm and he doesn't have the air of an actor. What I'm reading is that he knows he's got the tiger by the tail. All he needs is good songs. People already like him."


Katharine, on the other hand, doesn't exhibit the drive to win, "but seems to think she deserves it," says O'Donnell, predicting a failed music career and possible future in commercials. "She's cold and artificial. When she sings, she's looking for the camera and seems to be assuming a character. She attempts the vocal gymnastics of Celine Dion . When people hear Celine, they know it's real. Katharine seems manufactured. I think she'll fade."


In Katharine, what appears to be a blank slate may be simply a lack of self-awareness, maturity and seasoning, says Phil Gallo, associate editor at Daily Variety.


"I'm sure she'll be a vastly different person in three or four years," he says. "I still don't have a handle on who she is after all these weeks. She's not as strong a personality as Kelly" (Clarkson) — the first Idol winner in 2002 — "or Carrie. I don't know what she wants to do. She is blessed with a nice voice, but she needs media and stage training. She's not a natural performer."


Nonetheless, with the right machinery in place — a bouncy pop tune or sultry ballad, a slick producer, a promotional juggernaut — Kat could have a chart-buster, Gallo says. "The crazy thing is, I think Taylor has more talent, a better voice, and a better sense of self. But McPhee could probably have a bigger hit record, though it will be more expensive to make," he says.

American Idol comes on at 8:00 pm EST on Fox.

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Originally published May 23, 2006 11:11 am EST