American Idol: Chris Daughtry, Katharine McPhee could be voted off

American Idol: Chris Daughtry, Katharine McPhee could be voted off

Big underdog Elliott Yamin looks like a keeper while Chris Daughtry pays nearly $1200 for every $100 bet should he be voted off Wednesday show

My how things have turned around at American Idol. Entering the Tuesday night Elvis Presley themed show, big underdog Elliott Yamin gave it everything he got and then some to really wow over the judges. Simon Cowell saying "you deserve to move into the next round".

And he does.

If performances matter on a week-to-week basis (as opposed to just being a fan favorite), Yamin won hands down Tuesday night.

The payouts were huge for Yamin to win American Idol with odds that translate into over $2000 for every $100 bet at PinnacleSports.com (See Web Site Here)

Assuming Elliott Yamin stays on for a final week, this leaves either Chris Daughtry or Katharine McPhee. If you are to believe the controversial DialIdol.com web site results, Taylor Hicks has the most votes and is safe. Daughtry and McPhee, with 12 to 1 odds and 5 to 1 odds of being eliminated Wednesday night going into Tuesday's show at PinnacleSports.com (See Web Site Here), respectively, sit dead at the bottom of the voting scheme. Both are too close a call, sitting at a DialIdol score of 39.0.

A lot of hoop-la is swirling around the media world about DialIdol.com’s predictions for contestant evictions on Fox TV’s American Idol, according to the IdolsRising Blog. The site explains that on its prediction page, it shies away from that claim a bit by saying “measuring the busy signal is 84% accurate through 19 eliminations” but doesn’t really detail “what” it’s accurate about. When you dig into the FAQ page, it says – plain as day – “. . . we predict who will be voted off every week.”

But, can it really be true?

First, let’s look at the claims. Check any Idol or reality show blog, and they’ll have something about the DialIdol controversy. It even disturbed the show’s producers so much that the site’s creator, James Hellriegel, Jr., got a cease and desist letter from them.

So, does DialIdol.com accurately predict the loser each week? No, and they’ll tell you that on the site (hence the 84% figure). So, do they at least predict the loser 84% of the time . . . well, yes and no.

Giving a reasonable person’s expectations about what the site predicts based on the site’s claims, the media frenzy around it, etc., one assumes the controversy is because the site picks the one person who will lose each week. If that were an accurate statistic (84%), James Hellriegel Jr. wouldn’t be wasting his time on the internet giving away free software and odds, he’d be playing the numbers himself – and winning hand-over-fist. Why doesn’t he, and why don’t we hear about the DialIdol millionaires created by the people who DO take those figures and play them? Because they don’t exist – and here’s why.

The reason James Hellriegel, Jr., can claim 84% accuracy is because his program (and him, by default) doesn’t predict the one loser – it predicts that one among several stand a statistically significant chance of being kicked off the show. In one given week, the program might pick two or three who stand a chance of losing. If one of those few within that margin goes home – then, DialIdol claims victory for that week. Hardly picking “the one” when some weeks have included up to “nine predictions” (week with 20 contestants – four were being evicted), or even the “seven predictions” during the week with 10 Idols remaining . . . when only one was being evicted! And, all of this wonderful data I’m talking about can be found on Dial Idol’s own website (check “predictions,” then go week-by-week).

Again, using a reasonable person’s expectation of what “picking the loser” means, let’s take a look at the prediction record of DialIdol.com and see how many of their “lowest scoring” contestants fared and see if that 84% statistic really holds up.

In any event, if the competition is fair, Elliott Yamin should be staying on board and making it into the semi-finals. That leaves either Chris Daughtry or Katharine McPhee and possibly Taylor Hicks going home Wednesday evening with some pretty big payout odds.

Already PinnacleSports.com (See Web Site Here) is offering updated odds on Katharine McPhee being eliminated after Tuesday night's show that can be bet on now. They have her a -160 favorite to be leaving and +140 not to be (a $100 bet would pay out $140 if she moves into the semi-finals).

BET ON AMERICAN IDOL HERE (ADDITIONAL ODDS ON THE THREE REMAINING IDOL CONTESTANTS AVAILABLE IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S SHOW)

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Christopher Costigan, www.gambling911.com

Originally published May 10, 2006 12:25 am EST