2006 Kentucky Derby: Expert says Jazil will be the winner at 30 to 1 odds


Shawn Sillinger of
BetUS.com (See Web Site Here) says "Pass the $1,000 mint juleps down this way."

Saturday’s long anticipated 132nd running of the Kentucky Derby is now here. A full field of 20 has been entered for the venerable race, and with favorites Brother Derek and Lawyer Ron drawing relatively poor post positions on the outside, this Run for the Roses has the earmarks of a free-for-all.

Here are the 20 horses in the Derby, listed in order of post position, with a rundown of their chances at Churchill Downs.

1. Jazil: Nearly beat Bob and John at the Wood Memorial. Twelve Derby winners have come from this position, but none since Ferdinand in 1986. Good genetics and stamina.

2. Steppenwolfer: A fast closer, but probably facing too much of a maze to navigate through a crowded field. Lawyer Ron has beaten him three times in a row.

3. Keyed Entry: Tires after a mile. Finished third behind Jazil at the Wood Memorial. His effect on the race should be limited to pace-setting.

4. Sinister Minister: Expected to be the front-runner. Destroyed a strong field at the Blue Grass Stakes. Not likely to repeat that performance over the longer Derby haul.

5. Point Determined: The best of Bob Baffert’s three Derby horses. Sired by Point Given. Twelve Derby winners have also come from post 5. An excellent draw.


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6. Showing Up: Only three starts, but three impressive wins. Trying to duplicate the breakthrough 2003 win by Barclay Tagg-trained Funny Cide. Foot problems could spoil the party.

7. Bob and John: Has gotten consistently short odds on the futures market, but doesn’t have any single quality that stands out. Still maturing. Did have impressive workouts this week.

8. Barbaro: Dominant in five races, but against questionable opposition. Derby is just his second start in three months. Otherwise, excellent dosage and unquestionable talent. Breathtaking in this week’s workouts.

9. Sharp Humor: Narrowly lost to Barbaro at Florida Derby. Another strong frontrunner, but probably with more staying power than Sinister Minister. A solid value pick.

10. A.P. Warrior: Third behind Brother Derek and Point Determined at Santa Anita Derby, but should find Saturday’s pace more to his liking – provided the track isn’t sloppy. Do not overlook.


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11. Sweetnorthernsaint: Pure speed has captivated horseplayers. Dominated the Illinois Derby, but this week’s workouts weren’t standout. If you like him, get him early before the bandwagon fills up.

12. Private Vow: Unproven at this distance. Only two races in 2006, with a third-place finish at the Arkansas Derby. Good workout Monday on a muddy track.

13. Bluegrass Cat: Has the pedigree, but disappointed at Tampa Bay Derby and Blue Grass Stakes. Jockey Ramon Dominguez subs for the injured John Velazquez.

14. Deputy Glitters: Won the Tampa Bay Derby, but finished sixth at the Wood Memorial. Hasn’t shown top-level form.

15. Seaside Retreat: Squeaked into the Derby with $103,000 in earnings. Should be the longest shot on the board. Not a threat.


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16. Cause to Believe: Late-runner may be the best value in the field, thanks in part to poor third-place finish at Illinois Derby. Faster early pace will be very much to his benefit.

17. Lawyer Ron: Needs to avoid being overly aggressive out of the gate. Could actually benefit by being separated from the speed merchants in posts 3, 4 and 5. A proven winner.

18. Brother Derek: Plans to tuck in behind Lawyer Ron in the early going. Gato Del Sol in 1982 was the only other Derby winner from post 18. Pace does not really favor him at a short price.

19. Storm Treasure: Won at Churchill Downs as a 2-year-old. Had a pair of strong seconds this year. Could make the top half.

20. Flashy Bull: Has raced three times this year in graded stakes. Otherwise, no reason to expect much after poor Florida Derby showing. Jazil is easily the better of the stablemates.

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Shawn Sillinger of BetUS.com (See Web Site Here)

Originally published May 6, 2006 12:32 pm EST