Saturday’s long
anticipated 132nd running of the Kentucky Derby
is now here. A full field of 20 has been entered
for the venerable race, and with favorites
Brother Derek and Lawyer Ron drawing relatively
poor post positions on the outside, this Run for
the Roses has the earmarks of a free-for-all.
Here are the 20
horses in the Derby, listed in order of post position, with a
rundown of their chances at Churchill Downs.
1. Jazil:
Nearly beat Bob and John at the Wood Memorial.
Twelve Derby winners have come
from this position, but none since Ferdinand in
1986. Good genetics and stamina.
2.
Steppenwolfer: A fast closer, but probably
facing too much of a maze to navigate through a
crowded field. Lawyer Ron has beaten him three
times in a row.
3. Keyed Entry:
Tires after a mile. Finished third behind Jazil
at the Wood Memorial. His effect on the race
should be limited to pace-setting.
4. Sinister
Minister: Expected to be the front-runner.
Destroyed a strong field at the Blue Grass
Stakes. Not likely to repeat that performance
over the longer
Derby
haul.
5. Point
Determined: The best of Bob Baffert’s three Derby horses. Sired by
Point Given. Twelve Derby winners have also come from post 5. An
excellent draw.

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6. Showing Up:
Only three starts, but three impressive wins.
Trying to duplicate the breakthrough 2003 win by
Barclay Tagg-trained Funny Cide. Foot problems
could spoil the party.
7. Bob and
John: Has gotten consistently short odds on the
futures market, but doesn’t have any single
quality that stands out. Still maturing. Did
have impressive workouts this week.
8. Barbaro:
Dominant in five races, but against questionable
opposition. Derby is just his second start in
three months. Otherwise, excellent dosage and
unquestionable talent. Breathtaking in this
week’s workouts.
9. Sharp Humor:
Narrowly lost to Barbaro at Florida Derby.
Another strong frontrunner, but probably with
more staying power than Sinister Minister. A
solid value pick.
10. A.P.
Warrior: Third behind Brother Derek and Point
Determined at Santa Anita Derby, but should find
Saturday’s pace more to his liking – provided
the track isn’t sloppy. Do not overlook.

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11.
Sweetnorthernsaint: Pure speed has captivated
horseplayers. Dominated the Illinois Derby, but
this week’s workouts weren’t standout. If you
like him, get him early before the bandwagon
fills up.
12. Private
Vow: Unproven at this distance. Only two races
in 2006, with a third-place finish at the
Arkansas Derby. Good workout Monday on a muddy
track.
13. Bluegrass
Cat: Has the pedigree, but disappointed at Tampa
Bay Derby and Blue Grass Stakes. Jockey Ramon
Dominguez subs for the injured John Velazquez.
14. Deputy
Glitters: Won the Tampa Bay Derby, but finished
sixth at the Wood Memorial. Hasn’t shown
top-level form.
15. Seaside
Retreat: Squeaked into the Derby with $103,000
in earnings. Should be the longest shot on the
board. Not a threat.

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16. Cause to
Believe: Late-runner may be the best value in
the field, thanks in part to poor third-place
finish at Illinois Derby. Faster early pace will
be very much to his benefit.
17. Lawyer Ron:
Needs to avoid being overly aggressive out of
the gate. Could actually benefit by being
separated from the speed merchants in posts 3, 4
and 5. A proven winner.
18. Brother
Derek: Plans to tuck in behind Lawyer Ron in the
early going. Gato Del Sol in 1982 was the only
other Derby winner from post 18. Pace does not
really favor him at a short price.
19. Storm
Treasure: Won at Churchill Downs as a
2-year-old. Had a pair of strong seconds this
year. Could make the top half.
20. Flashy
Bull: Has raced three times this year in graded
stakes. Otherwise, no reason to expect much
after poor Florida Derby showing. Jazil is
easily the better of the stablemates.
---
Shawn Sillinger of
BetUS.com (See
Web Site Here)
Originally
published May 6, 2006 12:32 pm EST