Immigration debate could drastically alter 2008 Presidential betting odds

Election-year concerns and presidential jockeying are dominating the congressional debate over President Bush's immigration plan, threatening to scuttle the chances of an overhaul this year.

The issue, according to Julie Hirschfeld Davis of the Baltimore Sun, revolves around exposed deep divisions among Republicans, will spark a showdown next week in the Senate, with separate plans offered by three GOP senators, each of whom is exploring a presidential run in 2008.

Any Senate compromise measure would face long odds in the more conservative House, which has passed a tough border security measure and is hostile to the White House proposal for a guest worker program that would allow the approximately 12 million illegal immigrants in the United States a chance at citizenship.

The topic is a notoriously difficult and emotional one riddled with risks for lawmakers, touching on voters' post-9/11 security concerns and job worries as it threatens to devolve into a stalemate with undertones of protectionism and xenophobia.

Bush alluded to the risk of a "fractious debate" during a news conference Tuesday, saying the discussions, "if not conducted properly, will send signals that I don't think will befit the nation's history and traditions."

The Senate debate pits Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee, who is offering a tough plan to crack down on illegal immigration and fortify the nation's borders, against Arizona Sen. John McCain, who is pushing a guest worker program like one Bush has proposed and which appeals to businesses that depend on immigrants' labor.

The main moderate alternative to Frist comes from McCain, who has co-sponsored a bill with Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-Mass.) to grant 400,000 new guest-worker visas. It also would give undocumented aliens in the United States a chance to stay here if they pay a $1,000 fine, settle back tax bills, try to learn English and get to the back of the waiting list for a green card.

Frist has hinted he'll reject that approach as a veiled amnesty plan, prompting angry McCain supporters to charge that he's courting reactionaries in hopes of portraying McCain as soft on immigration in 2008.

"Frist is playing to people's worst instincts -- it's all about 2008 to him," said one prominent McCain ally, who requested anonymity.

Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska has also waded into the fight with a proposal to allow some immigrants to pay fines and apply for legal status.

All three are contemplating presidential runs, and their struggle over immigration mirrors a broader dispute among the White House, Republican lawmakers and strategists over how best to appeal to voters on the issue during a hard-fought election year.

Some strategists think the party should take a hard-line stance that plays to Republicans' traditional advantage on security issues, emphasizing - as Frist's measure does - border control and steep penalties for illegal immigrants and those who hire them.

Such an approach appeals to the party's conservative base, which has a strong hand in deciding the Republican presidential nominee. 

At press time, PlayersOnly.com (See Web Site Here), listed John McCain with 8 to 1 odds of winning the 2008 Presidential race.  Chuck Hagel has odds of 50 to 1 while Majority Leader Bill Frist is listed with odds of 30 to 1.

Only George Allen Jr. and Hillary Clinton have better odds of being elected President than Senator McCain. 

Four of the leading national Hispanic advocacy organizations in the United States - the League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC), the Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund (MALDEF), the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) Educational Fund, and the National Council of La Raza (NCLR) - today released the text of a letter to Senator Bill Frist (R-TN) expressing their concern with his threat to bypass the Senate Judiciary Committee and introduce his own border security bill.

An excerpt from the letter reads:

The undersigned national Latino organizations write to express our concerns regarding your recent announcement to rush the work of the Senate Judiciary Committee and bring the immigration reform debate to the full Senate as early as March 28, 2006. We are also disturbed by your threats to bypass the Committee entirely and bring your own border security bill to the floor.

Under the leadership of Chairman Arlen Specter, the experts of the Senate Judiciary Committee had made groundbreaking inroads toward passing comprehensive immigration reform legislation during the last markup session. They had entered into productive discussions on how to treat the 11 million undocumented immigrants in this country and any "future flow" of legally admitted workers.

Much of the controversy around immigration reform -- including last week's massive school walk-out in Los Angeles -- centers on an anti-smuggling provision in the House bill. Many church leaders claim it would make a felony out of feeding, sheltering or providing health care to undocumented immigrants.

Last Wednesday, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton turned up the political temperature by suggesting that the provision was ungodly and that "Jesus himself" would have been a criminal under the law.
 

By Monday, The Senate Judiciary Committee approved election-year immigration legislation that clears the way for millions of undocumented workers to seek U.S. citizenship without having to first leave the country.

After days of street demonstrations that stretched from California to the gounds of the U.S. Capitol, the committee also voted to strip out proposed criminal penalties for residents found to be in this country illegally.

The panel's vote cleared the way for the full Senate to begin debate Tuesday on the emotional immigration issue.

"All Americans wanted fairness and they got it this evening," said Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, the Massachusetts Democrat who played a pivotal role in drafting the legislation, approved 12-6.

Committee Chairman Arlen Specter, R-Pa., voted for the bill but signaled that some of the provisions could well be changed by the full Senate.

In general, the bill is designed to strengtehn border patrol, create new opportunities for so-called guest workers and determine the legal future of the estimated 11 million immigrants living in the United States illegally.

At several critical popints, committee Democrats were united while Republicans splintered. In general, GOP Sens. Lindsay Graham of South Carolina, Sam Brownback of Kansas and Mike DeWine of Ohio, who is seeking re-election this fall, sided with Democrats.

That gave Democrats a majority that allowed them to shape the bill to their liking.

-----

Gambling911.com News Wire

Originally published March 27, 2006 7:57 pm ET